Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:57:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E9 0xe995…5255 sports 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$324 (+20%) realized +$506 · open −$182
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%9W / 23L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day27.3pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$316now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$138
other 26% +$78
crypto 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +5.3% -4.8% 28% 28% +26.7%
≤30d 32 +5.3% -4.8% 28% 28% +26.7%
≤90d 32 +5.3% -4.8% 28% 28% +26.7%
all 32 +5.3% -4.8% 28% 28% +26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.8% 28% +26.7%
10% ← realistic here -13.9% 28% +14.6%
15% -22.2% 25% +3.5%
20% -29.8% 25% -6.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$11 · ×6.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.64 per $1 lost it wins $2.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$316
Realized+$506
Unrealized−$182
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses9 / 23
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions12
Markets (closed)32 / 44
History coverage3d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day27.3
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Under 52¢ 96¢ $150 $278 +$128 (+86%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 68¢ 100¢ $25 $37 +$12 (+47%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Canada? Yes $25 $0 −$25 (-99%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ $145 $0 −$145 (-100%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Canada? Yes 10¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 1 Qatar? Yes 10¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Yes 11¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 0 Qatar? Yes 13¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? Yes 12¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 0 Qatar? Yes $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Under 32¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Yes 17¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $150 +$165 +110%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $94 −$80 -86%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $18 −$1 -5%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $98 +$54 +55%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $101 −$3 -4%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $81 +$42 +52%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $102 +$230 +225%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $15 +$94 +612%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $51 −$33 -64%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 23 $7 −$6 -97%
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $31 +$16 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$5 +115%
Panama to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $36 +$42 +114%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 −$6 -57%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $10 −$2 -16%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $11 −$1 -10%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 $0 -3%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 −$1 -5%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 23 $12 −$2 -16%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $10 $0 -2%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $11 −$2 -16%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 $0 -3%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 $0 -4%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $152 17m
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $15 23m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 94¢ $315 28m
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $31 34m
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes $14 35m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 41m
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 62¢ $66 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 58¢ $54 1h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? SELL Yes 13¢ $18 1h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes $10 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $17 1h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 13¢ $18 1h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes $26 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $101 2h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $94 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $110 2h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 67¢ $27 17h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 66¢ $98 19h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 63¢ $71 19h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $101 19h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 19h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $41 19h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $315.96 · official $291.38 · 85 history records