Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:38:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

E9 0xe995…8218 crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$164 (-12%) realized −$38 · open −$126

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip

Net edge+2%after slip

Net WR55%break-even

Win rate55%11W / 9L

Drawdown41%max

Avg bet$54per market

Trades / day7.9pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit92%portable

Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +55%

net ROI/market (all)+5.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+16.9%	+5.7%	55%	55%	+14.5%
≤30d	20	+16.9%	+5.7%	55%	55%	+14.5%
≤90d	20	+16.9%	+5.7%	55%	55%	+14.5%
all	20	+16.9%	+5.7%	55%	55%	+14.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+5.7%	55%	+14.5%
10%	-4.4%	55%	+3.6%
15%	-13.6%	40%	-6.4%
20%	-22.1%	35%	-15.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 33% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +17% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +32% → late +2% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$43 vs −$22 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.4 per $1 lost it wins $2.4

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$134

Realized−$38

Unrealized−$126

Win rate (resolved)55%

Wins / losses11 / 9

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions6

Markets (closed)20 / 26

History coverage5d

Avg bet$54

Trades / day7.9

Drawdown41%

Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?	No	16¢	6¢	$200	$74	−$126 (-63%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	13¢	12¢	$20	$19	−$1 (-4%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	48¢	50¢	$10	$11	+$1 (+5%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?	Yes	3¢	3¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+4%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	26¢	27¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+2%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Jun 15	$257	+$154	+60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Jun 15	$26	−$25	-96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Jun 15	$26	+$35	+134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Jun 15	$10	+$5	+55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Jun 15	$26	−$25	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Jun 15	$25	+$8	+31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Jun 15	$25	+$7	+29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Jun 15	$10	+$11	+108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Jun 15	$129	+$109	+84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Jun 15	$5	+$4	+70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Jun 15	$26	−$25	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Jun 15	$5	+$2	+33%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$195	+$91	+46%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 15	$10	+$45	+442%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	Jun 14	$114	−$11	-10%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	Jun 13	$10	−$8	-77%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	Jun 13	$104	−$72	-70%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	BUY Up	75¢	$102	11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$103	12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$26	13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$26	13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	BUY Down	36¢	$26	16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$26	27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	BUY Up	63¢	$10	29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$26	36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	BUY Up	75¢	$25	46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	BUY Up	76¢	$25	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	BUY Down	19¢	$5	50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	BUY Down	74¢	$5	53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$5	56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	BUY Up	8¢	$5	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	BUY Up	54¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	BUY Up	74¢	$5	1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$164	5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	31¢	$20	6h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	27¢	$31	7h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	SELL Yes	1¢	$2	8h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	8h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	18¢	$10	9h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	SELL Yes	3¢	$24	32h
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	SELL Yes	0¢	$2	34h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	BUY Yes	3¢	$10	34h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	SELL Yes	2¢	$32	34h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	BUY Yes	13¢	$21	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.38 · official $134.38 (match) · 51 history records