Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:01:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe991…3e2b other 402 markets active 2h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$69 (-7%) realized −$58 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%168W / 217L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$6
14 days+$43
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$22
sports 12% −$23
culture 5% −$38
crypto 4% −$11
finance 1% −$10
politics 1% −$3
world 1% −$1
weather 0% −$3
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +52.8% +38.2% 54% 54% +29.7%
≤30d 39 -11.8% -20.2% 36% 36% +10.2%
≤90d 140 -25.7% -32.8% 27% 27% -18.3%
all 385 -4.3% -13.4% 44% 44% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 44% -15.7%
10% -21.7% 41% -23.7%
15% -29.3% 37% -31.1%
20% -36.2% 31% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$230
Realized−$58
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses168 / 217
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions17
Markets (closed)385 / 402
History coverage153d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 385 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 34¢ 25¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-36%)
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? Yes 37¢ 11¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-70%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 20¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 161 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +291%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +180%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $100 +$37 +37%
Will Club Universitario de Deportes vs. CD Tolima end in a draw? May 27 $1 +$2 +197%
Will Santos FC vs. CD Cuenca end in a draw? May 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Recoleta FC end in a draw? May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Club Nacional de Football vs. CD Coquimbo Unido end in a draw? May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will CR Flamengo vs. Cusco FC end in a draw? May 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata vs. Independiente Medellín end in a draw? May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 24 $1 $0 +25%
Exact Score: CA River Plate 2 - 0 CA Belgrano? May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
CA River Plate leading at halftime? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Independiente del Valle win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $1 $0 +36%
Will CD Cuenca vs. Recoleta FC end in a draw? May 20 $1 +$3 +276%
Will Montevideo City Torque win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $1 +$1 +124%
Will Audax CS Italiano vs. CA Barracas Central end in a draw? May 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Millonarios FC win on 2026-05-19? May 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will CA Tigre win on 2026-05-19? May 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? May 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Universidad Central de Venezuela FC win on 2026-05-19? May 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Club Always Ready vs. Mirassol FC end in a draw? May 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA Platense end in a draw? May 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-19? May 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Fluminense FC vs. Club Bolívar end in a draw? May 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will CD Coquimbo Unido vs. CD Tolima end in a draw? May 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $2 +$4 +180%
Will CA River Plate vs. CA Rosario Central end in a draw? May 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 14 $1 $0 +43%
Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $1 +$3 +325%
Will Racing Club win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $2 +$5 +250%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 11 $1 $0 +47%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Will CA Rosario Central vs. CA Independiente end in a draw? May 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 10h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 10h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 10h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 10h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 10h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 10h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 10h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 41h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 41h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 4d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $11 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $137 10d
Will Santos FC vs. CD Cuenca end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 20d
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Recoleta FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 20d
Will Club Universitario de Deportes vs. CD Tolima end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $230.10 · official $230.10 (match) · 767 history records