Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:14:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe98b…626a weather 332 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$302 (+1%) realized +$304 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate61%202W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$92
7 days−$84
14 days+$2
30 days−$291
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 48% +$37
crypto 42% −$201
sports 5% −$120
other 4% +$110
world 1% +$23
politics 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -1.0% -10.5% 71% 29% -18.3%
≤30d 106 +9.6% -0.8% 53% 24% -11.9%
≤90d 331 +1.0% -8.6% 61% 19% -10.3%
all 331 +1.0% -8.6% 61% 19% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 19% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 9% -18.9%
15% -25.3% 5% -26.7%
20% -32.6% 3% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized+$304
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses202 / 129
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)331 / 332
History coverage68d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 331 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 59¢ 58¢ $190 $188 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 29 $31 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 29 $101 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $98 +$1 +1%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $216 −$159 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 29? Jun 29 $29 +$1 +3%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $37 +$13 +34%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $201 +$65 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 28? Jun 28 $55 −$14 -26%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $5 $0 +1%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $1 $0 -26%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on Jun 24 $28 +$5 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 23? Jun 23 $25 +$2 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $19 +$1 +6%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $6 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 +$10 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $69 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 18? Jun 18 $43 +$7 +17%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $184 +$66 +36%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $85 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $28 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -73%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 07 $50 −$18 -35%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $122 +$33 +27%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 06 $4 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $44 −$19 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $45 −$30 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $45 −$12 -26%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 05 $20 −$3 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 4? Jun 04 $129 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $37 +$8 +20%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $19 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $7 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $28 +$4 +15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 3? Jun 04 $94 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $54 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 3? Jun 03 $19 +$1 +6%
Birmingham: Taylah Preston vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 03 $3 $0 -5%
Birmingham: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Katie Swan Jun 03 $4 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 03 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 03 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 59¢ $192 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $99 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $98 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 23¢ $57 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 86¢ $216 9h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 74¢ $37 9h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 29? BUY No 97¢ $29 16h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 75¢ $201 35h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 28? SELL No 50¢ $17 39h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 28? BUY No 60¢ $5 39h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 28? BUY No 60¢ $16 39h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 28? SELL No 54¢ $24 40h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $5 42h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $10 42h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 28? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 42h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 44h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 44h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 28? BUY No 75¢ $34 44h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $10 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on SELL 74¢ $33 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on BUY 62¢ $28 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 23? SELL No 96¢ $27 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.22 · official $188.22 (match) · 1663 history records