Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:33:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E9 0xe988…cf23 other 99 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$8,763 (+11%) realized +$8,699 · open +$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%41W / 57L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$830per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$549est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$1,908now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,714
7 days+$281
14 days−$959
30 days−$13,806
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$7,911
sports 39% +$1,036
crypto 6% −$241
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +8.3% -2.0% 43% 43% -8.6%
≤30d 39 -26.6% -33.6% 28% 28% -34.5%
≤90d 93 +15.8% +4.7% 42% 42% +0.0%
all 98 +19.4% +8.1% 42% 42% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.1% 42% +0.2%
10% -2.3% 42% -9.4%
15% -11.7% 42% -18.1%
20% -20.4% 42% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$1,091) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +33% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,297 vs −$809 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$1,908
Realized+$8,699
Unrealized+$64
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses41 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$549
Open positions1
Markets (closed)98 / 99
History coverage94d
Avg bet$830
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score No 43¢ 44¢ $1,844 $1,908 +$64 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,425 −$2,425 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2,148 −$2,148 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $2,366 +$2,859 +121%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2,022 −$1,947 -96%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1,970 −$1,970 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,432 −$1,432 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1,880 +$2,004 +107%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,148 −$2,148 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,080 +$3,438 +318%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,853 −$1,853 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,962 +$3,336 +170%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2,439 +$2,563 +105%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $2,180 −$2,180 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,278 +$2,184 +96%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 11 $167 +$340 +203%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $1,581 −$1,581 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $196 +$293 +150%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 31 $270 −$262 -97%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 31 $157 −$155 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong (Women's Strawweight, P May 30 $112 +$200 +178%
UFC Fight Night: Rodrigo Vera vs. Zhu Kangjie (Featherweight, Prelims) May 30 $1,452 +$1,600 +110%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 29 $1,080 −$1,080 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $1,121 +$2,276 +203%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1,325 −$1,325 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $879 −$879 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-07? May 23 $1,047 −$1,047 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 23 $1,122 −$1,122 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-10? May 23 $751 −$751 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08? May 23 $842 −$842 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Khaos Williams vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (Welterweight May 23 $1,257 −$1,257 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight May 23 $983 −$983 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 23 $1,149 −$1,149 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 23 $1,089 −$1,089 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 23 $1,294 −$1,294 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 23 $1,056 −$1,048 -99%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? May 23 $522 −$522 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-02? May 23 $925 −$925 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 23 $421 −$421 -100%
Stars vs. Wild May 23 $1,071 −$1,065 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $1,198 +$1,862 +156%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $1,023 +$1,742 +170%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $946 +$1,834 +194%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1,298 +$1,640 +126%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $68 −$1 -2%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $647 +$1,721 +266%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $786 +$1,750 +223%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? May 12 $989 +$1,747 +177%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 11 $1,108 −$1,108 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1,091 +$1,484 +136%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $1,004 +$1,043 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $3 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $1,872 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $48 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $2,377 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 41¢ $19 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 41¢ $2,129 23h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $7 44h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $74 44h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $16 44h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $28 44h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $40 44h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $91 44h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $13 44h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $14 44h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $62 44h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $15 45h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $4 45h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $38 45h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $37 45h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $8 45h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $2 45h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $8 45h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $2 45h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $4 45h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $4 45h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $41 45h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $853 45h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $24 45h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $258 45h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $2 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,908.14 · official $1,908.14 (match) · 614 history records