Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:20:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe982…af77 politics 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%4W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$3
politics 36% −$3
tech 11% +$1
sports 8% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 32 -0.3% -9.8% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 32 -0.3% -9.8% 12% 0% -9.6%
all 32 -0.3% -9.8% 12% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$221
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses4 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage18d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 100¢ 100¢ $221 $221 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nick Buckley win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? Jun 22 $200 $0 -0%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? Jun 21 $105 $0 +0%
Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $220 $0 -0%
Will AutoSleep: Watch Sleep Tracker be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Jun 15 $102 $0 +0%
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15 Jun 15 $105 $0 +0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $211 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $223 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $216 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 14 $150 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $100 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $123 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $220 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $223 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 11 $190 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $220 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $224 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $200 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 -8%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $225 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $190 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $226 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $214 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $226 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $217 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $96 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $227 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $80 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $100 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $221 1h
Will Nick Buckley win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? SELL No 100¢ $200 1h
Will Nick Buckley win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? BUY No 100¢ $200 2h
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $5 27h
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $5 27h
Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $105 2d
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $10 2d
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $220 2d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $220 3d
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15 BUY No 100¢ $105 7d
Will AutoSleep: Watch Sleep Tracker be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App BUY No 100¢ $102 7d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $211 7d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $211 8d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $223 8d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $223 8d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $216 8d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $216 8d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $150 8d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $150 8d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $100 8d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $123 8d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $123 9d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $100 9d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $200 10d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $200 10d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $110 10d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $110 10d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $220 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.89 · official $220.89 (match) · 73 history records