Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:26:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe97e…56cf crypto 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$135 (-10%) realized −$135 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate39%26W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$29
14 days−$27
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$23
crypto 32% −$74
other 30% −$9
sports 2% −$18
politics 1% −$10
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -46.1% -51.3% 29% 14% -20.6%
≤30d 47 +1.2% -8.4% 40% 36% -13.1%
≤90d 54 -3.0% -12.2% 41% 33% -16.3%
all 67 -12.2% -20.6% 39% 31% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 31% -18.9%
10% -28.2% 27% -26.7%
15% -35.1% 21% -33.8%
20% -41.5% 10% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$135
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses26 / 41
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 68
History coverage121d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $41 +$31 +76%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $144 −$20 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -91%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $20 +$9 +44%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$9 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$9 +151%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $110 −$14 -12%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $135 +$64 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$6 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $101 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$8 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $40 −$15 -38%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? Jun 11 $67 −$41 -61%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO Jun 11 $21 −$4 -22%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 09 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$65 +1227%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? Jun 05 $15 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? May 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 27 $30 −$5 -15%
Will Donald Trump announce Harmeet Dhillon as the next United States A May 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $41 5h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL Yes 65¢ $28 5h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $14 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $110 6d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 6d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 6d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 6d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 83¢ $61 7d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 31¢ $29 7d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $72 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $31 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $30 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $35 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $12 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 14¢ $96 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.78 · official $29.78 (match) · 160 history records