Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:13:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe97c…3076 other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$100 (-22%) realized −$91 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%11W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$86
crypto 11% −$31
sports 8% +$22
world 2% +$1
politics 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +37.0% +23.9% 100% 100% +13.8%
≤30d 5 +10.5% -0.1% 80% 80% +7.0%
≤90d 14 -26.0% -33.0% 43% 43% -26.0%
all 30 -31.3% -37.8% 37% 37% -35.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.8% 37% -35.4%
10% -43.8% 30% -41.6%
15% -49.2% 27% -47.2%
20% -54.2% 17% -52.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$91
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses11 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)30 / 37
History coverage151d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $35 $29 −$6 (-18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $22 $25 +$3 (+13%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $21 $15 −$6 (-27%)
Will Croatia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 44¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $33 +$5 +15%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +41%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $3 −$2 -78%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Donna Vekic vs Karolina Pliskova Apr 10 $6 +$6 +97%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Alex de Minaur Apr 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during I Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Alexander Zverev Apr 10 $10 +$6 +64%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 09 $8 −$5 -62%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 09 $10 −$7 -68%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 09 $15 −$10 -70%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? Jan 27 $16 +$4 +27%
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? Jan 26 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 26 $10 −$6 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 26 $5 −$4 -81%
Will Paddy Pimblett win by KO or TKO? Jan 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 2 hours and 2 hours Jan 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minute Jan 25 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minute Jan 25 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 45 minute Jan 25 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 24 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $10 +$9 +88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 24? Jan 24 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Burnley FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 Jan 24 $10 +$20 +196%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY 58¢ $35 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $38 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND BUY 10¢ $10 4d
Will Croatia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 40¢ $9 11d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 11d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 12d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $23 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 12d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $35 12d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 12d
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-04-10? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 73d
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-04-10? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 73d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 73d
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Donna Vekic vs Karolina Pliskova SELL Donna Vekic 100¢ $12 73d
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 66¢ $10 74d
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Donna Vekic vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Donna Vekic 50¢ $6 74d
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $16 74d
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 60¢ $10 74d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 74d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 74d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 74d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28? BUY Yes 55¢ $16 146d
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during I BUY Yes 61¢ $5 146d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? SELL No 80¢ $21 146d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.19 · official $109.19 · 78 history records