Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:14:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
E9 0xe97a…9f08 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$17 (+10%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +26.0% +14.0% 75% 75% +17.4%
≤30d 4 +26.0% +14.0% 75% 75% +17.4%
≤90d 4 +26.0% +14.0% 75% 75% +17.4%
all 4 +26.0% +14.0% 75% 75% +17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.0% 75% +17.4%
10% +3.1% 75% +6.2%
15% -6.9% 50% -4.1%
20% -16.0% 25% -13.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.65 per $1 lost it wins $2.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)4 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 88¢ 86¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +134%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$4 +24%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $20 21h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $15 39h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 40h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 43h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.76 · official $114.77 (match) · 11 history records