Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:53:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe971…6ceb weather 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$16 (-29%) realized −$11 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%9W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day21.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-45.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -39.3% -45.1% 30% 30% -43.6%
≤30d 30 -39.3% -45.1% 30% 30% -43.6%
≤90d 30 -39.3% -45.1% 30% 30% -43.6%
all 30 -39.3% -45.1% 30% 30% -43.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.1% 30% -43.6%
10% ← realistic here -50.3% 30% -49.0%
15% -55.1% 27% -53.9%
20% -59.5% 23% -58.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses9 / 21
Open positions23
Markets (closed)30 / 53
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? No 25¢ 100¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+300%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 16? No 62¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+61%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 16? No 78¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 17? No 63¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? No 45¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? No 51¢ 51¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 18? No 66¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? No 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 17? No 47¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? No 65¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 18? No 76¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 17? No 76¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? No 47¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? No 6¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 16? No 8¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-56%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? No 31¢ 11¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-65%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? No 6¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? No 41¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 16? No 46¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? No 35¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? No 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? No 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 16? No 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +149%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +35%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +51%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +155%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 18? BUY No 66¢ $1 1m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 63¢ $1 47m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 65¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 76¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 6¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 25¢ $1 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 8¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 78¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 35¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 35¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 31¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 42¢ $1 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 6¢ $1 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 47¢ $1 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 45¢ $1 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 60¢ $1 16h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 51¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 76¢ $1 20h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 47¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 63¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 36¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 7¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 24¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 24¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 33¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 21¢ $1 26h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 15? BUY No 4¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 24¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 54¢ $1 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.36 · official $18.36 (match) · 62 history records