Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:48:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E9 0xe970…1429 crypto 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%77W / 1L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$10
other 0% −$3
world 0% +$4
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 17 +4.5% -5.5% 100% 6% -9.1%
all 78 -0.1% -9.6% 99% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 1% -9.4%
10% -18.2% 1% -18.0%
15% -26.1% 1% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.31 per $1 lost it wins $5.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses77 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)78 / 81
History coverage240d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $108 $108 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 23? Jun 28 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? Jun 21 $121 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 6? Jun 13 $118 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 18? Jun 05 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 8? May 11 $118 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? May 01 $5 $0 +3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? May 01 $6 +$4 +67%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 13? Apr 20 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on April 7? Apr 09 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $107 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March? Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Crude Oil all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $5 $0 +4%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 29? Mar 30 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 24? Mar 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 16? Mar 18 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 13? Mar 14 $110 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 12? Mar 13 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on March 10? Mar 11 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on March 8? Mar 09 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 6? Mar 07 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on March 3? Mar 05 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on March 1? Mar 02 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 24? Feb 25 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 22? Feb 23 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $108 $0 +0%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil Feb 17 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 15? Feb 16 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 13? Feb 13 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 11? Feb 12 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on February 9 Feb 10 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 7? Feb 08 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 5? Feb 06 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on February 2 Feb 04 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on February 1 Feb 01 $99 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in January? Feb 01 $6 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $100,000 on January 30? Jan 31 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78,000 on January 28? Jan 28 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,600 and $3,700 on January 26? Jan 27 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100,000 and $102,000 on January Jan 24 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on January 21? Jan 21 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $82,000 on January 18? Jan 19 $101 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $108 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $110 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4 6d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $3 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $121 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $118 22d
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On BUY No 100¢ $5 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $117 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $118 51d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $105 61d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? BUY No 60¢ $6 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $108 76d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? BUY No 97¢ $5 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $114 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $115 79d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on April 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $114 82d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $107 87d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 29? BUY No 100¢ $100 92d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $104 94d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $100 96d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 21? BUY No 100¢ $102 99d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $3 99d
Crude Oil all time high by March 31? BUY No 96¢ $5 99d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY No 100¢ $4 99d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 16? BUY No 100¢ $110 105d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 13? BUY No 99¢ $110 106d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 12? BUY No 100¢ $112 108d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on March 10? BUY No 100¢ $110 110d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on March 8? BUY No 100¢ $108 112d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $111 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.89 · official $115.89 (match) · 162 history records