Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:00:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E9 0xe96b…d965 crypto 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate64%23W / 13L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$535per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% −$8
politics 33% −$7
other 12% −$2
tech 11% −$2
crypto 5% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 36 +0.7% -8.8% 64% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 3% -9.6%
10% -17.6% 3% -18.2%
15% -25.5% 3% -26.1%
20% -32.8% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,101) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$164
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses23 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)36 / 40
History coverage224d
Avg bet$535
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Will BNB reach $1,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 22? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 21 $75 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 21 $89 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.90 April 13-19? May 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on April 17? May 24 $69 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 24 $83 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Apr 17 $68 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 17 $96 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Mar 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 2 Mar 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on February 26? Mar 17 $64 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? Feb 25 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 10? Feb 25 $61 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on January 8? Feb 08 $163 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jan 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 07 $150 +$1 +0%
Buffalo vs. Central Michigan Dec 21 $2 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on November 13? Dec 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on November 13? Dec 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 13? Dec 21 $111 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novemb Nov 13 $2,365 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 13 $413 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 13 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Nov 12 $2,368 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 12 $2,370 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 12 $2,344 −$2 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Nov 11 $6 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Nov 11 $30 +$3 +9%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 11 $2,597 −$3 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 11 $1,118 −$1 -0%
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 10 $2,379 −$2 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 10 $1,026 −$1 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Nov 10 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Nov 10 $11 $0 +1%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 10 $1,101 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 10 $1,271 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $37 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 1h
Will BNB reach $1,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $41 1h
Will Solana reach $130 in May? BUY No 100¢ $75 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $89 28d
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? BUY No 100¢ $83 64d
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 64d
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $59 64d
Will XRP dip to $0.90 April 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $12 64d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $96 96d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $68 96d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on February 26? BUY No 100¢ $64 116d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 2 BUY No 100¢ $42 116d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 133d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 10? BUY No 100¢ $61 133d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa BUY No 100¢ $39 133d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru BUY No 100¢ $19 133d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on January 8? BUY No 100¢ $163 165d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $150 182d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec BUY No 100¢ $13 182d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on November 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 220d
Buffalo vs. Central Michigan BUY Central Michigan 96¢ $2 220d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on November 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 220d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 13? BUY No 100¢ $111 220d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novemb SELL No 100¢ $2,362 220d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novemb BUY No 100¢ $1,013 220d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $413 220d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $600 220d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $413 220d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.46 · official $164.48 (match) · 88 history records