Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:15:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe966…12de sports 171 markets active 0h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,829 (-4%) realized −$1,802 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate64%101W / 58L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$268per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$86
7 days+$13
14 days+$190
30 days+$385
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$4,923
sports 34% +$3,088
crypto 1% +$31
politics 0% +$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -10.5% -19.0% 47% 42% -7.3%
≤30d 45 +5.0% -5.0% 60% 58% +6.4%
≤90d 116 -3.7% -12.9% 54% 49% -22.3%
all 159 +16.5% +5.4% 64% 55% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.4% 55% -13.0%
10% -4.7% 41% -21.4%
15% -13.9% 32% -29.0%
20% -22.4% 24% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +46% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$130 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$1,802
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses101 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions1
Markets (closed)159 / 171
History coverage250d
Avg bet$268
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 36¢ 16¢ $47 $20 −$27 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$13 +62%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $46 −$45 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $10 +$1 +10%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $14 +$17 +120%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$6 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $20 +$32 +155%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 +$15 +152%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Jun 15 $20 +$34 +169%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $220 +$30 +14%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $198 +$52 +26%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $11 −$2 -17%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $161 +$47 +29%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $155 +$22 +14%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $117 +$64 +55%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $96 +$20 +21%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $71 +$25 +36%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $52 +$19 +36%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $40 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $83 +$9 +11%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $21 +$62 +287%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $32 +$5 +17%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $24 +$7 +31%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $111 +$63 +57%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $5 +$19 +372%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $150 +$22 +14%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $35 +$24 +68%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 24 $100 +$12 +12%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 23 $50 +$20 +40%
Honor of Kings: AG Super Play vs Wolves (BO9) - Honor of Kings Challen May 23 $36 +$5 +13%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qual May 21 $40 +$20 +50%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $20 +$4 +21%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualif May 18 $10 +$8 +76%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $23 +$17 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 24¢ $7 15m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 17¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 40¢ $41 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 28¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 47¢ $4 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 58¢ $61 30h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 36¢ $20 34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 21¢ $10 34h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 35h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 57¢ $10 44h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Scotland vs. Morocco en BUY 18¢ $3 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 58¢ $20 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 18¢ $3 45h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 62¢ $11 46h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $36 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-1 BUY 2¢ $1 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republi BUY 5¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $10 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL DR Congo 97¢ $76 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 39¢ $31 3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 64¢ $51 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $14 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 38¢ $20 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 45¢ $15 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.02 · official $73.90 · 959 history records