Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:55:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe965…6f61 other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+2%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate45%18W / 22L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$10
other 26% +$22
politics 11% $0
sports 5% +$2
finance 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 +1.0% -8.6% 62% 12% -11.6%
≤90d 13 +0.2% -9.4% 46% 8% -11.2%
all 40 +5.3% -4.7% 45% 10% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 10% -7.7%
10% -13.8% 5% -16.5%
15% -22.2% 2% -24.6%
20% -29.8% 2% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses18 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage302d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $57 $57 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $4 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $16 +$1 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $6 $0 +8%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $26 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $56 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $15 +$2 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $55 −$9 -16%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $57 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $58 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $15 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $57 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $62 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $66 −$4 -6%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Jan 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 24 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 16 $9 $0 +2%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $13 +$20 +152%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $43 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $6 +$2 +35%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 06 $7 $0 +1%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $1 $0 +13%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 28 $5 $0 +3%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 11 $2 $0 -3%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 26 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $9 2h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $48 2h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 5h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 7h
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 27d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $20 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $7 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $17 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $16 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $21 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $35 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $56 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 38¢ $14 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 38¢ $32 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 45¢ $55 29d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $24 29d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $32 29d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $43 30d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $14 30d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $23 30d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $34 30d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $57 30d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $15 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.48 · official $57.48 (match) · 172 history records