Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:08:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

E9 0xe962…5e8e crypto 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$11 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip

Net edge-29%after slip

Net WR27%break-even

Win rate73%16W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$34per market

Trades / day55.7pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit87%portable

Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +27%

net ROI/market (all)-16.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	-7.4%	-16.3%	73%	27%	-14.9%
≤30d	22	-7.4%	-16.3%	73%	27%	-14.9%
≤90d	22	-7.4%	-16.3%	73%	27%	-14.9%
all	22	-7.4%	-16.3%	73%	27%	-14.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover55.7 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-16.3%	27%	-14.9%
10% ← realistic here	-24.3%	14%	-23.0%
15%	-31.6%	9%	-30.5%
20%	-38.3%	0%	-37.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 35% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +1% → late -16% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$15 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.52 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$24

Realized+$11

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)73%

Wins / losses16 / 6

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)22 / 23

History coverage1d

Avg bet$34

Trades / day55.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	92¢	90¢	$25	$24	−$1 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Jun 18	$25	+$1	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Jun 18	$15	+$1	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Jun 18	$15	+$1	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Jun 18	$10	+$1	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Jun 18	$30	+$4	+13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Jun 18	$10	+$1	+7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Jun 18	$20	+$2	+11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Jun 18	$5	$0	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Jun 18	$30	−$25	-83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Jun 18	$51	−$22	-44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Jun 18	$77	+$2	+2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Jun 18	$25	+$4	+16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Jun 18	$76	−$20	-26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Jun 18	$77	$0	-0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Jun 18	$76	+$2	+2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Jun 18	$81	+$2	+2%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Jun 18	$25	+$1	+3%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$25	+$10	+40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$41	+$17	+42%
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo?	Jun 17	$5	+$1	+29%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$20	−$20	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	BUY Up	92¢	$25	1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	BUY Down	97¢	$25	4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	BUY Up	94¢	$15	38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	BUY Up	95¢	$15	46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	BUY Up	94¢	$10	55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	BUY Down	84¢	$15	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	SELL Down	89¢	$17	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	BUY Down	80¢	$15	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	BUY Up	93¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	SELL Down	85¢	$9	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Down	69¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	SELL Down	75¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Down	75¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Down	75¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	BUY Up	97¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	BUY Down	97¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	BUY Up	77¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Down	86¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	SELL Down	94¢	$29	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Down	82¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	BUY Up	11¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	BUY Down	89¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	SELL Down	90¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	BUY Down	83¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	SELL Up	34¢	$23	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	BUY Up	35¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	SELL Up	91¢	$29	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	BUY Up	77¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	BUY Down	90¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	BUY Down	88¢	$25	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.32 · official $24.32 (match) · 82 history records