Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:01:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E9 0xe961…ef1b crypto 40 markets active 4h ago coverage 64d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$21,442 (+22%) realized +$21,061 · open +$381
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%16W / 22L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$2,419per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$29,163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15,337
7 days+$19,351
14 days+$19,351
30 days+$19,351
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% +$17,577
crypto 15% +$6,350
other 2% −$88
politics 0% −$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +48.8% +34.6% 41% 41% +50.0%
≤30d 32 +48.8% +34.6% 41% 41% +50.0%
≤90d 38 +39.7% +26.4% 42% 39% +21.6%
all 38 +39.7% +26.4% 42% 39% +21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +26.4% 39% +21.6%
10% ← realistic here +14.3% 32% +10.0%
15% +3.3% 32% -0.6%
20% -6.8% 29% -10.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$966) neutral
Persistence
early +43% → late +36% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
23.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,078 vs −$449 · ×4.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.37 per $1 lost it wins $3.37
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$29,163
Realized+$21,061
Unrealized+$381
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses16 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage64d
Avg bet$2,419
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 54¢ 55¢ $26,787 $27,256 +$469 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $1,995 $1,908 −$88 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $891 +$3,206 +360%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $719 −$686 -95%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $14,860 +$13,000 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 23 $180 −$170 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 19 $322 −$309 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $562 −$562 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $355 −$355 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $540 −$540 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $966 −$966 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $424 −$424 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $992 −$992 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $116 +$929 +798%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $193 +$358 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $88 +$113 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $481 +$2,057 +428%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $873 −$873 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $963 +$3,257 +338%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $372 −$372 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $825 −$825 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$35 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $1,424 +$3,832 +269%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $527 +$854 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $1,588 −$1,588 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 19 $116 +$17 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $264 +$116 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $460 −$460 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $172 +$882 +514%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 15 $4,714 +$959 +20%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 12 $103 −$83 -81%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 03 $5,000 −$323 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Apr 28 $2,504 −$157 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 28 $8,496 +$268 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $17,626 +$3,360 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29,163.36 · official $29,163.36 (match) · 1027 history records