Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T15:27:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe961…fc41 weather 815 markets active 2h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$31 (+1%) realized +$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate49%399W / 416L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$25
14 days+$27
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$67
weather 42% +$61
finance 0% −$4
politics 0% +$3
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +9.0% -1.4% 88% 62% -0.4%
≤30d 46 -2.7% -11.9% 54% 48% -5.3%
≤90d 450 +19.2% +7.9% 46% 42% -5.3%
all 815 +7.8% -2.5% 49% 37% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 37% -9.8%
10% -11.8% 32% -18.4%
15% -20.3% 28% -26.3%
20% -28.1% 25% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses399 / 416
Open positions0
Markets (closed)815 / 815
History coverage228d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 815 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $45 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $44 +$7 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $43 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $35 +$5 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $29 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $35 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $22 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 +$7 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 +$11 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 8? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 8? Jun 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $14 +$10 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 10? Jun 08 $4 −$1 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $19 +$10 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $13 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 9? Jun 07 $3 +$2 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 9? Jun 07 $5 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 6? Jun 06 $7 +$9 +130%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $4 +$3 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $10 −$5 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $15 −$4 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 2? Jun 02 $11 +$3 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 2? Jun 02 $12 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 31? Jun 02 $10 −$5 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 3? Jun 02 $17 −$2 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 30? Jun 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 31? May 31 $11 +$8 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 28? May 29 $2 −$2 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 28? May 28 $10 +$10 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 29? May 28 $6 +$4 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 27? May 27 $13 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 27? May 27 $7 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 26? May 26 $3 +$2 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 26? May 26 $6 −$3 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 25? May 26 $13 −$5 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on May 18? May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 18? May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 24? May 24 $25 −$21 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 24? May 24 $14 +$5 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on May 22? May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 23? May 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 22? May 22 $10 −$3 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 23? May 22 $9 +$2 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 22? SELL Yes 99¢ $52 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 22? BUY Yes 87¢ $18 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 22? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 22? BUY Yes 85¢ $17 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 21? BUY Yes 87¢ $12 27h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 21? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 27h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 21? BUY Yes 85¢ $21 27h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 97¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 97¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 89¢ $40 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 87¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 87¢ $35 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 99¢ $32 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 88¢ $19 6d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? SELL Yes 81¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? SELL Yes 81¢ $12 6d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? SELL Yes 81¢ $8 6d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? SELL Yes 81¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? SELL Yes 81¢ $8 6d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? BUY Yes 84¢ $7 6d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 6d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? BUY Yes 85¢ $14 6d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? BUY Yes 85¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2551 history records