Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:53:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe960…4a6d world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% $0
other 13% −$2
politics 6% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.1% -11.4% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -4.1% -13.2% 28% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 18 -4.1% -13.2% 28% 0% -9.7%
all 31 -4.4% -13.5% 45% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 3% -9.8%
10% -21.8% 3% -18.4%
15% -29.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -36.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage459d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 5¢ 9¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $45 +$1 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 -10%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -9%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $3 $0 -12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $16 $0 +3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $16 +$1 +5%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 -8%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 -32%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $14 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $11 $0 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $3 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $6 −$1 -14%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 26 $8 $0 +4%
Will Steven Fulop win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jun 10 $9 −$1 -6%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 08 $1 $0 +27%
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $8 $0 +4%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? May 06 $12 $0 +1%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 30 $11 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Mar 25 $11 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21? Mar 18 $12 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $45 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $45 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $26 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $15 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $41 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $44 35h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $44 36h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $6 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $14 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $20 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $46 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 90¢ $45 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 7¢ $3 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 8¢ $1 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 8¢ $2 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $17 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $16 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.35 · official $0.35 (match) · 91 history records