Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:12:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E9 0xe960…a960 sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$184 (+6%) realized +$185 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$58
other 5% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -21.6% -29.0% 38% 38% -8.6%
≤30d 13 -21.6% -29.0% 38% 38% -8.6%
≤90d 13 -21.6% -29.0% 38% 38% -8.6%
all 13 -21.6% -29.0% 38% 38% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 38% -8.6%
10% -35.8% 31% -17.4%
15% -42.0% 31% -25.4%
20% -47.7% 23% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$171 vs −$103 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized+$185
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage4d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Switzerland 17¢ 16¢ $70 $68 −$2 (-3%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $193 −$116 -60%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $206 −$187 -91%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $509 −$187 -37%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $67 −$4 -6%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $569 +$557 +98%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $203 +$133 +66%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $202 +$99 +49%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -97%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $502 +$61 +12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 −$9 -65%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 +$5 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 17¢ $72 1h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) SELL Colombia 10¢ $76 1h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Colombia 24¢ $193 9h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 10h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 5¢ $19 10h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $37 24h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $206 2d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Sweden 27¢ $322 3d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 41¢ $509 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $304 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 37¢ $63 3d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 88¢ $1,126 3d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 48¢ $508 3d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) SELL Germany 94¢ $336 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 99¢ $301 3d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 26¢ $61 3d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 56¢ $203 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 66¢ $202 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $67 3d
Spread: Australia (-1.5) SELL Australia 99¢ $562 3d
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Australia 88¢ $502 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 43¢ $10 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 56¢ $4 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $4 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.59 · official $104.59 (match) · 30 history records