Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:45:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe95e…4ec0 politics 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 637d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate1%1W / 80L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 69% −$11
other 16% −$2
economics 13% −$2
tech 1% $0
sports 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
all 81 -1.9% -11.2% 1% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

637d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses1 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)81 / 81
History coverage637d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 81 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $49 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $49 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $49 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $49 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? Apr 07 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 23 $50 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Mar 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 01 $50 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 07 $48 $0 -0%
Will Tomio Okamura be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic af Nov 24 $48 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will LaMelo Ball lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the Eastern Conference? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Nicolas Claxton lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will 'Joker 2' gross most in 2024? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will another team win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Hurts be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Caleb Williams win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
No one announced as next BlackRock CEO? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Mark Wiedman announced as next BlackRock CEO? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Saquon Barkley be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Matthew Stafford win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Red Star Belgrade win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first elected Speaker of the House for the Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
GPT-5 not announced in 2024? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? Dec 20 $0 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 20 $0 $0 -1%
Will the Washington Commanders win the NFC East? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Panthers win the NFC South? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Democrats win popular vote by 1-2%? Dec 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will another player be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Dec 09 $0 $0 -1%
Will inflation increase by 2.5% or less in November? Dec 09 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Browns win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the AFC south? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in November? Dec 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 25 $0 $0 -1%
Will 'Balatro' win Game of the Year? Nov 25 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 2h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 16h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $49 5d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $10 6d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $28 6d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $11 6d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $49 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 14d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $49 38d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 39d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $49 42d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $49 43d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 52d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 52d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 52d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 68d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 69d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 74d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 75d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? SELL No 99¢ $50 80d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $50 80d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $50 82d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $41 83d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $9 83d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $50 96d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $50 96d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 101d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 102d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 104d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 206 history records