Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:27:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E9 0xe95e…61f2 other 738 markets active 2h ago coverage 627d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ Covers last 627d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,804 (-0%) realized −$2,542 · open −$262
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate71%484W / 197L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$814per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$50,600now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 627d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$13,196
tech 14% −$822
world 8% −$1,313
politics 4% −$3,889
crypto 3% −$204
weather 2% −$146
sports 1% −$645
finance 1% −$242
culture 1% +$99
economics 0% −$309
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -1.2% -10.6% 80% 25% -9.8%
≤30d 61 -19.8% -27.5% 52% 18% -10.3%
≤90d 167 -8.8% -17.5% 60% 23% -8.9%
all 681 +0.2% -9.3% 71% 21% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 21% -8.5%
10% -18.0% 15% -17.3%
15% -25.9% 10% -25.3%
20% -33.2% 7% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$537) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$205 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

627d coverage
Net worth$50,600
Realized−$2,542
Unrealized−$262
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses484 / 197
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions56
Markets (closed)681 / 738
History coverage627d ⚠
Avg bet$814
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 56 History 681 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 95¢ $7,252 $7,441 +$188 (+3%)
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $4,692 $4,663 −$30 (-1%)
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? No 86¢ 80¢ $4,931 $4,560 −$371 (-8%)
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? No 72¢ 84¢ $3,629 $4,263 +$633 (+17%)
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $3,185 $3,193 +$8 (+0%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $2,587 $2,638 +$52 (+2%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No 51¢ 45¢ $2,824 $2,470 −$354 (-13%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 59¢ 64¢ $2,098 $2,257 +$159 (+8%)
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $1,962 $2,107 +$145 (+7%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 63¢ 72¢ $1,724 $1,968 +$244 (+14%)
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $1,552 $1,593 +$40 (+3%)
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? No 90¢ 99¢ $1,387 $1,520 +$133 (+10%)
SBF released from custody in 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $1,106 $1,132 +$26 (+2%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 50¢ 90¢ $500 $895 +$395 (+79%)
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? No 79¢ 75¢ $857 $818 −$39 (-5%)
Will Nansen launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $789 $783 −$6 (-1%)
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? No 69¢ 72¢ $724 $751 +$27 (+4%)
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? No 81¢ 99¢ $577 $702 +$125 (+22%)
Another crypto hack over $100m by June 30? No 87¢ 87¢ $646 $650 +$5 (+1%)
Next Token Sale on Coinbase by August 31, 2026? No 85¢ 74¢ $639 $553 −$85 (-13%)
Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 99¢ $470 $496 +$26 (+6%)
Next Token Sale on Coinbase by July 31, 2026? No 87¢ 58¢ $632 $422 −$211 (-33%)
Next Token Sale on Coinbase by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 93¢ $321 $387 +$67 (+21%)
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? No 38¢ 36¢ $384 $358 −$26 (-7%)
Next Token Sale on Coinbase by September 30, 2026? No 66¢ 70¢ $321 $342 +$21 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 18 $343 −$45 -13%
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Jun 17 $1,026 +$196 +19%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Jun 17 $289 +$45 +16%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? Jun 17 $248 +$34 +14%
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 16 $815 +$141 +17%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $130 +$70 +54%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Jun 16 $3,985 −$1,653 -42%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $177 +$3 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $2,922 +$38 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $1,283 +$15 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $2,204 +$35 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $4,750 +$74 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $855 +$20 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $1,088 +$33 +3%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $9,927 +$245 +2%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $358 +$12 +3%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $14,154 +$645 +5%
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2,114 +$65 +3%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $41 −$39 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $558 −$85 -15%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 11 $147 −$2 -2%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.50T and 1.75T? Jun 11 $33 −$32 -96%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.00T and 2.25T? Jun 11 $14 −$14 -96%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Jun 11 $17 −$16 -96%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 11 $268 −$1 -0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 10 $485 +$23 +5%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? Jun 10 $743 +$60 +8%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 10 $10,467 +$408 +4%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 10 $589 −$238 -40%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 10 $980 −$93 -10%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $594 +$42 +7%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $11 $0 -1%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $239 −$210 -88%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $153 −$131 -86%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $767 −$61 -8%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $79 +$175 +221%
Will Maja Chwalińska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $810 +$190 +24%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4,759 +$124 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $581 +$4 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $7,497 +$44 +1%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 01 $9,930 +$70 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $5,725 −$10 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $186 −$183 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 30 $1,071 +$140 +13%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 30 $141 +$18 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 29 $1,679 +$33 +2%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $65 −$63 -97%
Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch? May 26 $676 +$88 +13%
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 26 $716 +$84 +12%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 26 $339 −$75 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY Yes 76¢ $26 1h
OpenAI IPO before 2027? BUY No 46¢ $236 6h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL Yes 60¢ $298 6h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 22¢ $18 26h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 22¢ $20 26h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 22¢ $20 26h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 22¢ $20 26h
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? SELL No 50¢ $0 28h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? SELL Yes 71¢ $335 30h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? SELL Yes 92¢ $282 30h
Another crypto hack over $100m by September 30? BUY No 45¢ $33 30h
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? BUY No 81¢ $535 30h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 22¢ $4 32h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 22¢ $1 38h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 22¢ $6 43h
Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31? SELL No 40¢ $33 46h
Another crypto hack over $100m by September 30? BUY No 56¢ $192 2d
Another crypto hack over $100m by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $652 2d
Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31? BUY No 35¢ $206 2d
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? BUY No 81¢ $319 2d
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? BUY No 80¢ $892 2d
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $957 2d
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $7,292 2d
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? BUY No 40¢ $308 2d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? SELL No 54¢ $389 2d
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 22¢ $7 3d
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 22¢ $2 3d
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 22¢ $2 3d
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 22¢ $37 3d
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 22¢ $44 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50,600.25 · official $50,551.88 (match) · 3500 history records