Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:50:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe95d…7b6d crypto 44 markets active 5d ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$111 (-19%) realized −$111 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate52%23W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$155
30 days−$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 54% −$145
crypto 46% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -11.8% -20.2% 61% 45% -17.1%
≤30d 44 -18.0% -25.8% 52% 41% -30.7%
≤90d 44 -18.0% -25.8% 52% 41% -30.7%
all 44 -18.0% -25.8% 52% 41% -30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 41% -30.7%
10% -32.9% 23% -37.3%
15% -39.4% 11% -43.4%
20% -45.3% 5% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$111
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses23 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage9d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$4 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $16 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $8 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $9 $0 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 7? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 7? Jun 06 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 5? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 +$6 +120%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 6? Jun 05 $15 −$4 -25%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $19 −$10 -52%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? Jun 05 $103 −$5 -5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4? Jun 04 $154 −$111 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $96 +$26 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 117 history records