Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:10:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe95a…5969 other 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 298d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$53 (+5%) realized +$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate36%18W / 32L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$17
other 35% +$36
politics 10% $0
sports 7% $0
crypto 5% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +6.9% -3.3% 38% 25% -5.0%
≤30d 8 +6.9% -3.3% 38% 25% -5.0%
≤90d 8 +6.9% -3.3% 38% 25% -5.0%
all 50 +2.0% -7.7% 36% 8% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 8% -5.0%
10% -16.6% 6% -14.1%
15% -24.6% 6% -22.4%
20% -32.0% 4% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×6.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.39 per $1 lost it wins $10.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

298d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses18 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage298d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $94 +$16 +17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $4 +$1 +40%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $42 $0 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 01 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 30 $4 −$2 -46%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 29 $5 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 17 $11 $0 +1%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $30 +$36 +124%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $80 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $46 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 19 $12 $0 +2%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $2 +$2 +86%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $13 +$1 +8%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 11 $3 −$1 -24%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $13 $0 +1%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Oct 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 04 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Oct 02 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Sep 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 10 $19 $0 +2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 28 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 27 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Aug 26 $11 $0 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 26 $10 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Aug 24 $5 $0 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August? Aug 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 22 $34 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $4600 on August 22? Aug 22 $36 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 22 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $54 11m
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $59 14m
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $59 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 76¢ $41 7h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 76¢ $13 7h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 78¢ $31 12h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 78¢ $25 12h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 21¢ $4 13h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 21¢ $12 13h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 21¢ $9 13h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 21¢ $12 13h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 19¢ $33 17h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $5 46h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 15¢ $4 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 14¢ $19 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $6 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $42 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $42 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $42 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $42 3d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $38 5d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $19 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $19 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $38 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $26 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $13 6d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 134d
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $2 168d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $11 180d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.18 · official $54.18 (match) · 303 history records