Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:18:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe95a…0206 crypto 1292 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 129d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$47 (-1%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%593W / 699L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$295
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 153 +1.8% -7.9% 68% 66% -10.1%
≤30d 208 -2.1% -11.4% 62% 60% -11.6%
≤90d 654 -6.4% -15.4% 51% 50% -15.8%
all 1292 -3.4% -12.6% 46% 46% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 46% -13.3%
10% -20.9% 44% -21.6%
15% -28.6% 38% -29.2%
20% -35.6% 34% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses593 / 699
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1292 / 1292
History coverage129d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1292 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $2 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records