Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:17:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe958…66b7 world 128 markets active 0h ago coverage 692d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$17,342 (-12%) realized −$9,808 · open −$7,534
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate69%83W / 38L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,157per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$2,617now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$359
7 days+$7,597
14 days−$7,973
30 days−$8,049
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% −$16,742
other 12% −$493
politics 10% +$700
tech 1% +$134
sports 0% −$192
culture 0% +$82
crypto 0% −$100
economics 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +19.2% +7.9% 89% 89% +8.8%
≤30d 62 -3.6% -12.8% 69% 35% -19.1%
≤90d 112 -7.1% -15.9% 67% 28% -17.8%
all 121 -6.1% -15.0% 69% 28% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 28% -16.9%
10% -23.2% 13% -24.9%
15% -30.6% 7% -32.1%
20% -37.4% 5% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$523 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

692d coverage
Net worth$2,617
Realized−$9,808
Unrealized−$7,534
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses83 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions7
Markets (closed)121 / 128
History coverage692d
Avg bet$1,157
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 46¢ 48¢ $921 $958 +$36 (+4%)
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? No 41¢ 3¢ $8,164 $637 −$7,527 (-92%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $585 $570 −$15 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $278 $283 +$5 (+2%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 49¢ 36¢ $97 $73 −$24 (-25%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+2%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 46¢ 37¢ $46 $37 −$9 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 17 $321 +$165 +51%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 16 $48 +$12 +25%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $1,505 +$182 +12%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 14 $243 −$47 -19%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $8,339 +$1,562 +19%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $265 +$59 +22%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $203 +$36 +18%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $25,945 +$5,488 +21%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $580 +$139 +24%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $48 −$11 -22%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 10 $4 $0 +9%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $30 +$3 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $600 +$39 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 10 $105 +$13 +13%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $446 −$14 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 10 $227 +$14 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 09 $231 +$3 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 09 $18 +$1 +4%
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Jun 09 $2,761 −$243 -9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $406 +$32 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 08 $1 $0 +36%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $936 +$59 +6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 08 $184 −$5 -3%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $46 −$26 -57%
Will Trump say "Kuwait" this week? Jun 08 $65 +$9 +14%
Will Trump say "Jerome" or "Powell" this week? Jun 08 $69 +$8 +11%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $22 +$8 +35%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $14,027 −$12,655 -90%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $23,826 −$2,829 -12%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31? Jun 05 $108 +$4 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $20 −$1 -7%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $35 +$9 +25%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 04 $219 +$22 +10%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $59 −$59 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $21 +$17 +82%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $122 −$26 -21%
Will Trump say "Scam" or "Fraud" this week? Jun 02 $58 −$58 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong Jun 02 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Trump say "Chicken" in May? Jun 02 $6 $0 +8%
Will Trump say "CIA" this week? Jun 02 $5 $0 +3%
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? Jun 01 $220 +$12 +6%
Will Trump say "NATO" this week? Jun 01 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Trump say "Damn" this week? Jun 01 $6 $0 +5%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? Jun 01 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Trump say "Deer" in May? Jun 01 $17 +$1 +5%
Will Trump say "Cat" in May? Jun 01 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Trump say "Pig" in May? Jun 01 $7 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL No 4¢ $11 10m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 90¢ $46 27m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 90¢ $14 32m
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL No 6¢ $60 40m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $32 46m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $43 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $25 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $50 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $125 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $75 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $45 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $5 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $89 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $1 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $2 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $3 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 30¢ $120 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 30¢ $30 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 33¢ $165 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 27¢ $130 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 27¢ $5 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $120 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 23¢ $14 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL Yes 81¢ $8 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $221 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $59 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $94 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $15 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $1 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? SELL No 15¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,617.29 · official $2,617.34 (match) · 2385 history records