Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:17:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E9 0xe951…61b3 crypto 15 markets active 5d ago coverage 184d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$14 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%14W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$376per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$12
crypto 5% +$2
weather 2% $0
world 1% +$1
politics 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 14 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 0% -9.3%
10% -17.7% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses14 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage184d
Avg bet$376
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $39 $39 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 01 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by May 8? May 19 $38 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C or below on March 19? Apr 27 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? Mar 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on March 6? Mar 10 $38 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 29°F or below on February 2 Feb 27 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 11 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in January? Feb 05 $37 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 86°F or higher on January 22? Jan 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,900 January 12-18? Jan 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $90 before 2026? Jan 15 $36 +$1 +2%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 16? Dec 24 $5,113 +$12 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 17 $34 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 4d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $38 28d
Will Trump visit China by May 8? BUY No 99¢ $38 50d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C or below on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $38 90d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? BUY No 100¢ $38 98d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on March 6? BUY No 100¢ $38 103d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 109d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 29°F or below on February 2 BUY No 100¢ $38 111d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $38 125d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $38 131d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in January? BUY No 99¢ $37 141d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 86°F or higher on January 22? BUY No 100¢ $37 144d
Will Ethereum reach $3,900 January 12-18? BUY No 100¢ $37 152d
Will Solana dip to $90 before 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 174d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 99¢ $34 181d
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 16? SELL No 100¢ $2,262 181d
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 16? SELL No 100¢ $104 181d
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 16? SELL No 100¢ $2,134 181d
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 16? SELL No 100¢ $495 181d
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 16? SELL No 100¢ $128 181d
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 16? BUY No 100¢ $5,113 181d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 98¢ $34 188d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.14 · official $39.14 (match) · 34 history records