Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:16:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E9 0xe949…7490 sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 324d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$52 (+17%) realized +$11 · open +$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -86% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -87% what you keep after slip
Net edge-87%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%1W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$41
world 17% −$51
sports 4% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-87.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 12 -86.1% -87.4% 8% 8% -97.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -87.4% 8% -97.6%
10% -88.6% 8% -97.8%
15% -89.7% 8% -98.0%
20% -90.7% 8% -98.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -86% · $-wt -97% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -72% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

324d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses1 / 11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage324d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $86 $90 +$3 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 18¢ $35 $74 +$39 (+112%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $47 $46 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Aug 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Steelers vs. Jaguars Aug 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Jets vs. Packers Aug 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Phillies vs. Rangers Aug 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Guardians vs. White Sox Aug 09 $1 +$1 +67%
Rockies vs. Diamondbacks Aug 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Phillies vs. Rangers Aug 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Athletics vs. Orioles Aug 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Astros vs. Yankees Aug 08 $1 −$1 -100%
White Sox vs. Mariners Aug 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Marlins vs. Braves Aug 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Reds vs. Pirates Aug 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $88 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $48 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $137 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $100 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes 35¢ $26 313d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes 34¢ $25 315d
Steelers vs. Jaguars BUY Jaguars 66¢ $1 322d
Jets vs. Packers BUY Packers 60¢ $1 322d
Phillies vs. Rangers BUY Rangers 55¢ $1 322d
Rockies vs. Diamondbacks BUY Rockies 31¢ $1 323d
Phillies vs. Rangers BUY Rangers 45¢ $1 323d
Guardians vs. White Sox BUY Guardians 60¢ $1 323d
Athletics vs. Orioles BUY Athletics 48¢ $1 323d
Astros vs. Yankees BUY Yankees 48¢ $1 323d
White Sox vs. Mariners BUY White Sox 30¢ $1 324d
Marlins vs. Braves BUY Marlins 55¢ $1 324d
Reds vs. Pirates BUY Reds 41¢ $1 324d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.09 · official $212.94 · 30 history records