Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:12:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E9 0xe947…ab96 politics 132 markets active 5h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,803 (+9%) realized +$3,635 · open +$168
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate68%23W / 11L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$323per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$21,606now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$166
30 days+$1,201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 72% +$2,412
crypto 13% +$228
other 11% +$333
sports 3% +$802
world 2% −$470
economics 0% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +117.9% +97.1% 100% 100% +94.4%
≤90d 23 +24.6% +12.8% 70% 57% +27.8%
all 34 +7.2% -3.0% 68% 41% +4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 41% +4.3%
10% -12.3% 29% -5.7%
15% -20.8% 21% -14.8%
20% -28.6% 15% -23.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -48% → late +63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$214 vs −$160 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.8 per $1 lost it wins $2.8
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$21,606
Realized+$3,635
Unrealized+$168
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses23 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions98
Markets (closed)34 / 132
History coverage159d
Avg bet$323
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 98 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1,128 $1,122 −$6 (-1%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? No 83¢ 80¢ $1,030 $1,001 −$29 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $950 $964 +$14 (+1%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? No 85¢ 92¢ $850 $925 +$75 (+9%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 93¢ 95¢ $890 $914 +$23 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $871 $905 +$34 (+4%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? No 88¢ 88¢ $900 $895 −$5 (-1%)
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? No 93¢ 96¢ $762 $791 +$29 (+4%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 94¢ 97¢ $755 $773 +$18 (+2%)
Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No 86¢ 88¢ $552 $565 +$14 (+2%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $522 $543 +$21 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $493 $499 +$6 (+1%)
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $475 $498 +$23 (+5%)
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? No 35¢ 34¢ $500 $494 −$6 (-1%)
Will Clémentine Autain be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No 89¢ 95¢ $445 $475 +$30 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $454 $472 +$18 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 90¢ $430 $452 +$22 (+5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $300 $410 +$110 (+37%)
Will Karim Bouamrane be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No 94¢ 94¢ $408 $409 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jean Castex be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No 90¢ 91¢ $375 $378 +$3 (+1%)
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? No 96¢ 99¢ $300 $310 +$10 (+3%)
Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027? No 96¢ 96¢ $288 $286 −$2 (-1%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $279 $279 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? Yes 72¢ 69¢ $290 $276 −$14 (-5%)
Will Jérôme Guedj be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No 89¢ 92¢ $246 $253 +$7 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 08 $303 +$166 +55%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $490 +$810 +165%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? May 26 $169 +$31 +18%
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? May 26 $83 +$194 +233%
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and Apr 15 $189 −$146 -78%
Will Benoît Payan win the Marseille mayor election? Apr 01 $16 +$6 +37%
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? Apr 01 $170 +$54 +32%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Apr 01 $415 +$85 +20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 01 $460 +$40 +9%
ICE shooter charged by March 31? Apr 01 $500 +$128 +26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Apr 01 $967 +$33 +3%
Will Grégory Doucet win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? Mar 25 $414 +$84 +20%
Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? Mar 25 $512 +$485 +95%
Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? Mar 25 $540 +$60 +11%
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? Mar 25 $746 +$254 +34%
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in th Mar 25 $330 +$1,670 +506%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? Mar 25 $649 −$322 -50%
Will Christian Estrosi win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? Mar 25 $331 −$161 -49%
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in th Mar 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Movistar KOI win the LEC 2026 Versus? Mar 22 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Mar 22 $165 −$165 -100%
Will Sébastien Delogu win the Marseille mayor election? Mar 22 $491 +$9 +2%
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in th Mar 21 $138 −$138 -100%
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? Mar 18 $9,463 +$644 +7%
Will Franck Allisio win the Marseille mayor election? Mar 03 $153 −$153 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026? Mar 02 $136 +$64 +47%
Will Los Ratones win the LEC 2026 Versus? Feb 19 $172 +$14 +8%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 09 $1,422 +$75 +5%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? Feb 04 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6? Feb 03 $191 +$9 +5%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? Feb 03 $793 +$5 +1%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $424 −$424 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 02 $110 −$110 -100%
Will anyone audibly fart during Trump's WEF 2026 speech? Jan 25 $192 +$8 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the next French presid BUY No 92¢ $88 5h
Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the next French presid BUY No 92¢ $1 5h
Will Manuel Bompard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential BUY No 92¢ $6 5h
Will Sébastien Lecornu be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidenti BUY No 95¢ $19 18h
Will Valérie Pécresse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidentia BUY No 95¢ $20 18h
Will Karim Bouamrane be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential BUY No 93¢ $19 18h
Will Karim Bouamrane be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential BUY No 93¢ $19 18h
Will Manuel Bompard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential BUY No 92¢ $86 18h
Will Jérôme Guedj be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential el BUY No 91¢ $91 18h
Will Jean Castex be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential ele BUY No 90¢ $36 18h
Will Ségolène Royal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential BUY No 90¢ $54 18h
Will Gérald Darmanin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential BUY No 89¢ $18 18h
Will Carole Delga be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential el BUY No 90¢ $38 18h
Will François Bayrou be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential BUY No 91¢ $89 18h
Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential el BUY No 39¢ $16 18h
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $188 18h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Deep Cross Gaming 16¢ $103 18h
Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidentia BUY Yes 16¢ $10 18h
Will Mathilde Panot advance to the second round of the next French pre BUY No 96¢ $2 31h
Will Mathilde Panot advance to the second round of the next French pre BUY No 96¢ $0 31h
Will Carole Delga advance to the second round of the next French presi BUY No 93¢ $3 2d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet advance to the second round of the next French p BUY No 95¢ $38 2d
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French president BUY Yes 92¢ $277 3d
Will Laurent Wauquiez advance to the second round of the next French p BUY No 94¢ $2 3d
Will Laurent Wauquiez advance to the second round of the next French p BUY No 94¢ $0 3d
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French pr BUY Yes 72¢ $39 5d
Will Dominique de Villepin advance to the second round of the next Fre BUY No 92¢ $0 6d
Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidentia BUY Yes 16¢ $6 7d
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French pr BUY Yes 72¢ $177 7d
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French pr BUY Yes 74¢ $60 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,605.51 · official $21,605.67 (match) · 633 history records