Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:38:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E9 0xe947…2cf3 sports 1879 markets active 2h ago coverage 247d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 247d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,489 (+2%) realized +$1,587 · open −$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate57%1065W / 798L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$114est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$269now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 247d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$388
other 13% −$63
world 1% +$89
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -15.3% -23.4% 41% 40% -65.2%
≤30d 180 -3.5% -12.7% 52% 51% -30.8%
≤90d 1095 -6.1% -15.0% 56% 54% -17.4%
all 1863 -5.9% -14.8% 57% 56% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 56% -10.9%
10% -23.0% 49% -19.4%
15% -30.4% 40% -27.2%
20% -37.2% 34% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$23 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$269
Realized+$1,587
Unrealized−$98
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses1065 / 798
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$114
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1863 / 1879
History coverage247d ⚠
Avg bet$37
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 1863 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score No 64¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 34¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-48%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Milwaukee Bucks in 2026-27? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-42%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 2¢ $90 $2 −$88 (-98%)
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals Yes 26¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 488 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lakers vs. Suns Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Toulouse FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Poland win on 2025-10-12? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brentford vs. Manchester United end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2025-10-10? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2025-10-10? Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Everton vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-01? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-09-20? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-30? Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-01? Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? Jun 21 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-08-23? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-23? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SC Braga win on 2025-08-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Union St. Gilloise win on 2025-09-16? Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-10-01? Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Manchester City vs. Tottenham end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Union Berlin win on 2025-09-21? Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-30? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Thibaut Courtois record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 21 $10 $0 +3%
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $50 −$2 -3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$2 +12%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $5 +$2 +42%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $10 +$3 +32%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +48%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$7 +65%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 +$8 +165%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $2 +$20 +994%
Alexander Isak: 3+ shots Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 +$4 +76%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$6 +12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 +$3 +65%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +67%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 +$3 +27%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 +$3 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
United States to score first vs. Australia? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +50%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2 +$7 +365%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$1 +27%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +48%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 1h
Will Thibaut Courtois record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wo SELL No 79¢ $10 1h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $49 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 70¢ $5 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 75¢ $10 6h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 68¢ $10 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 6h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 6h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 14h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 14h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 14h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 14h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 24h
Alexander Isak: 3+ shots BUY Yes 43¢ $3 30h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $5 30h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 4¢ $2 30h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 9¢ $2 30h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 30h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $5 44h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $268.55 · official $273.73 · 3500 history records