Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:52:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe946…4cc4 sports 22 markets active 7d ago coverage 679d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$27,130 (-41%) realized −$27,003 · open −$127
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate14%3W / 18L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,989per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$8,843now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1,381
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 26% +$1,665
tech 24% −$14,795
other 18% −$1,508
finance 16% −$7,388
politics 10% −$1,917
sports 6% −$3,274
economics 1% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-46.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -46.5% -51.6% 0% 0% -62.4%
≤90d 6 -49.5% -54.4% 0% 0% -47.1%
all 21 -40.9% -46.5% 14% 10% -52.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -46.5% 10% -52.9%
10% ← realistic here -51.6% 10% -57.4%
15% -56.3% 5% -61.5%
20% -60.6% 5% -65.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$3,844) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,879 vs −$2,151 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

679d coverage
Net worth$8,843
Realized−$27,003
Unrealized−$127
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses3 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage679d
Avg bet$2,989
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $8,970 $8,843 −$127 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,830 −$1,249 -68%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $532 −$131 -25%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) May 09 $898 −$879 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 10 $2,176 −$1,180 -54%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $3,152 −$468 -15%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 31 $5,478 −$1,929 -35%
Spread: Galatasaray SK (-1.5) Mar 19 $553 −$553 -100%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? Mar 19 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 18 $1,800 −$1,025 -57%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 17 $3,844 −$3,187 -83%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 17 $4,258 −$3,021 -71%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 08 $1,000 −$105 -10%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $3,931 +$11,504 +293%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Mar 04 $7,910 −$7,910 -100%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 10 $15,492 −$14,795 -96%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $417 −$291 -70%
Olympic Basketball: Canada vs. France Oct 31 $1,010 −$1,010 -100%
Olympic Basketball: Greece vs Germany Aug 06 $444 +$118 +27%
Olympic Basketball: Australia vs. Serbia Aug 06 $498 −$451 -90%
Will Nicolas Maduro Win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? Aug 01 $419 −$27 -6%
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 July meeting? Jul 31 $404 +$15 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $9,210 7d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes $51 17d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 21¢ $23 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 28¢ $378 17d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 21¢ $378 17d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 27¢ $532 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 15¢ $529 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $1,452 17d
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) BUY Liverpool FC 28¢ $898 38d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? SELL Yes $589 67d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? SELL Yes $407 67d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY Yes $1,476 75d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY Yes $500 75d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $908 75d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY Yes $200 75d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes $788 78d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $1,878 85d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $450 86d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $450 87d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $2,761 90d
Spread: Galatasaray SK (-1.5) BUY Galatasaray SK $550 90d
Will Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $500 90d
Spread: Galatasaray SK (-1.5) BUY Galatasaray SK $0 90d
Spread: Galatasaray SK (-1.5) BUY Galatasaray SK $0 90d
Spread: Galatasaray SK (-1.5) BUY Galatasaray SK $0 90d
Spread: Galatasaray SK (-1.5) BUY Galatasaray SK $0 90d
Spread: Galatasaray SK (-1.5) BUY Galatasaray SK $0 90d
Spread: Galatasaray SK (-1.5) BUY Galatasaray SK $0 90d
Spread: Galatasaray SK (-1.5) BUY Galatasaray SK $0 90d
Spread: Galatasaray SK (-1.5) BUY Galatasaray SK $0 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,842.80 · official $8,842.80 (match) · 188 history records