Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:30:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe946…299b crypto 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-5%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$9
other 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.6% -10.1% 57% 43% -1.0%
≤30d 7 -0.6% -10.1% 57% 43% -1.0%
≤90d 7 -0.6% -10.1% 57% 43% -1.0%
all 7 -0.6% -10.1% 57% 43% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 43% -1.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 14% -10.5%
15% -26.5% 14% -19.1%
20% -33.7% 0% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$11 +36%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $6 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records