Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:31:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe944…5c72 other 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$11,972 (+5%) realized +$11,972 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate55%24W / 20L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$5,724per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$321
7 days−$146
14 days−$146
30 days−$146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$9,043
politics 5% +$1,774
sports 1% +$945
world 0% −$293
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -30.8% -37.4% 40% 40% -14.6%
≤30d 5 -30.8% -37.4% 40% 40% -14.6%
≤90d 5 -30.8% -37.4% 40% 40% -14.6%
all 44 -20.4% -28.0% 55% 36% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.0% 36% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here -34.9% 27% -14.5%
15% -41.2% 20% -22.7%
20% -46.9% 14% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$8,892) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -32% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,377 vs −$1,079 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11,972
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses24 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage232d
Avg bet$5,724
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $497 −$483 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $800 +$454 +57%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $299 −$293 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $631 +$564 +89%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $398 −$389 -98%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? Feb 01 $480 −$366 -76%
Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jan 21 $4,836 +$56 +1%
Trove FDV above $2M one day after launch? Jan 21 $1,000 +$242 +24%
Trove FDV above $5M one day after launch? Jan 19 $1,000 −$322 -32%
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jan 16 $3,250 +$655 +20%
Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jan 16 $1,000 +$423 +42%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 12 $2,099 +$782 +37%
Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale? Jan 12 $500 −$500 -100%
Over $8M committed to the Trove public sale? Jan 12 $11,000 +$24 +0%
Over $6M committed to the Trove public sale? Jan 11 $11,036 +$612 +6%
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 11 $2,000 +$1,049 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Jan 02 $165 −$165 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? Jan 02 $9,900 +$151 +2%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? Dec 31 $1,800 +$4 +0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Dec 31 $9,469 +$5,352 +56%
Kinetiq FDV above $2B one day after launch? Nov 29 $9,945 +$24 +0%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Nov 24 $8,892 +$1,586 +18%
Over $80M committed to the Solomon public sale? Nov 18 $3,937 −$3,937 -100%
Over $60M committed to the Solomon public sale? Nov 18 $325 −$325 -100%
Over $20M committed to the Solomon public sale? Nov 18 $3,000 −$1,983 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 17 $401 −$401 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 13 $11,613 +$1,774 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 13 $870 −$738 -85%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 13 $600 −$579 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 11 $905 +$331 +37%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 10 $660 −$60 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 09 $157 +$96 +61%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $1,421 +$945 +66%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 09 $71 −$47 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 08 $1 −$1 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 07 $11,612 +$940 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 07 $17,700 +$2,426 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025? Nov 07 $3,407 +$203 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 07 $2,504 −$2,239 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 06 $1,027 +$237 +23%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $42,352 −$2,441 -6%
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $61,375 +$14,126 +23%
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $2,111 −$1,717 -81%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 29 $4,833 −$4,602 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $497 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,254 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $800 5h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $299 29h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,195 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $631 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $398 3d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? SELL Yes $114 135d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? BUY Yes 13¢ $480 135d
Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $4,836 148d
Trove FDV above $2M one day after launch? BUY No 81¢ $1,000 148d
Trove FDV above $5M one day after launch? SELL Yes 54¢ $678 149d
Trove FDV above $5M one day after launch? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,000 149d
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $3,905 151d
Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $1,423 151d
Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 70¢ $1,000 152d
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch? BUY No 82¢ $2,050 153d
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch? BUY No 85¢ $1,200 153d
Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale? BUY Yes 12¢ $500 156d
Over $8M committed to the Trove public sale? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,000 156d
Over $8M committed to the Trove public sale? BUY Yes 100¢ $5,000 156d
Over $8M committed to the Trove public sale? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,000 156d
Over $6M committed to the Trove public sale? SELL Yes 100¢ $11,648 156d
Over $6M committed to the Trove public sale? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,030 157d
Over $6M committed to the Trove public sale? BUY Yes 92¢ $440 157d
Over $6M committed to the Trove public sale? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,150 157d
Over $6M committed to the Trove public sale? BUY Yes 92¢ $224 157d
Over $6M committed to the Trove public sale? BUY Yes 92¢ $78 157d
Over $6M committed to the Trove public sale? BUY Yes 92¢ $113 157d
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale? BUY No 66¢ $2,000 158d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 410 history records