Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:27:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E9 0xe942…dec7 weather 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$108 (-3%) realized −$112 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate86%112W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$80
14 days−$102
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 89% +$24
other 10% −$86
sports 1% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -1.1% -10.5% 92% 20% -4.8%
≤30d 130 -5.6% -14.6% 86% 13% -12.6%
≤90d 130 -5.6% -14.6% 86% 13% -12.6%
all 130 -5.6% -14.6% 86% 13% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 13% -12.6%
10% -22.8% 6% -21.0%
15% -30.2% 5% -28.6%
20% -37.1% 2% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$18 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$112
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses112 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)130 / 133
History coverage16d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? No 93¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? No 96¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 28? No 96¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 28? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 28? No 94¢ 96¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 21? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 21? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 21? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 28? Jun 28 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 28? Jun 28 $30 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 28 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $20 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 27? Jun 28 $20 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 27? Jun 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 27? Jun 28 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 27? Jun 27 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 27? Jun 27 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 27? Jun 27 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 27? Jun 27 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 27? Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 26? Jun 27 $40 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 26? Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 27 $30 +$7 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 26? Jun 27 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 27 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 27 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 26? Jun 27 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 26? Jun 27 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 26? Jun 27 $20 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 25? Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 26 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 25? Jun 25 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $30 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $40 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25? Jun 25 $30 +$13 +42%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 25 $20 +$8 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 24? Jun 25 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 25 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 24? Jun 24 $40 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 24? Jun 24 $30 +$8 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 24? Jun 24 $30 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 24 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $40 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 23? Jun 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 23? Jun 23 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23? Jun 23 $40 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 23 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $100 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $50 +$6 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $40 +$8 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 28? SELL Yes 99¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 28? SELL No 99¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 28? BUY No 94¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 28? BUY Yes 97¢ $40 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $22 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 28? BUY No 94¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 91¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 28? BUY No 98¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 28? BUY No 96¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 27? BUY No 90¢ $20 15h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 96¢ $10 16h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $20 18h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $20 18h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 27? BUY No 88¢ $10 22h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 96¢ $20 29h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? BUY No 93¢ $20 29h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 27? BUY No 93¢ $20 29h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27? BUY No 97¢ $20 29h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $20 30h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 27? BUY No 96¢ $20 30h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 27? BUY No 98¢ $20 30h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 95¢ $10 37h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 95¢ $20 37h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 74¢ $10 38h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 75¢ $10 38h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $10 38h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $30 38h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $20 38h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $21 40h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 26? BUY No 94¢ $10 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.93 · official $101.37 · 276 history records