Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:09:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe93d…da91 sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$339 (-34%) realized −$338 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate70%14W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$36
14 days+$36
30 days−$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$354
crypto 12% +$6
other 11% $0
politics 4% +$1
tech 3% $0
world 2% +$4
weather 2% $0
culture 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +35.1% +22.2% 100% 100% +22.2%
≤30d 4 -34.4% -40.6% 50% 50% -41.5%
≤90d 14 -24.2% -31.4% 64% 36% -48.1%
all 20 -21.8% -29.2% 70% 25% -43.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 25% -43.7%
10% -36.0% 20% -49.1%
15% -42.2% 5% -54.0%
20% -47.9% 0% -58.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$72 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$338
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses14 / 6
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage170d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $84 $83 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $102 +$36 +35%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $124 −$123 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $72 +$20 +27%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 23 $58 −$58 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals May 15 $107 −$106 -99%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? May 15 $9 +$2 +17%
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 40% by March 31? May 15 $13 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 35°F or below on March 13? May 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March May 15 $16 $0 +1%
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 11, 2026? May 15 $19 +$5 +24%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers May 15 $45 +$22 +48%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 13-19? May 15 $78 +$6 +8%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 07 $67 −$66 -99%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 29 $79 −$79 -99%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $210 end of January? Feb 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 04 $23 $0 +0%
Congress authorizes military force against Venezuela by January 31? Feb 04 $23 $0 +1%
Will BNB reach $1300 in January? Feb 04 $25 $0 +1%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 07 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $85 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 73¢ $102 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $124 15d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Yandex 78¢ $72 20d
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 64¢ $58 26d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals BUY Baltimore Orioles 57¢ $107 34d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY BNK FEARX 64¢ $67 42d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY Celtics 67¢ $79 50d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers BUY Spurs 67¢ $45 53d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 13-19? BUY No 92¢ $78 60d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 99¢ $16 90d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 35°F or below on March 13? BUY No 100¢ $15 97d
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 40% by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $13 107d
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 86¢ $9 110d
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 11, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $19 127d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $210 end of January? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 147d
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? BUY Yes $1 147d
Will BNB reach $1300 in January? BUY No 99¢ $25 151d
Congress authorizes military force against Venezuela by January 31? BUY No 99¢ $23 151d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $23 161d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 170d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.92 · official $82.92 (match) · 35 history records