Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:23:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe939…9259 crypto 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate77%24W / 7L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% $0
culture 13% $0
economics 12% +$1
other 11% $0
world 8% +$2
tech 1% +$1
politics 1% −$2
finance 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.7% -7.0% 100% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 3 +2.7% -7.0% 100% 0% -8.0%
≤90d 5 -18.2% -25.9% 80% 0% -9.8%
all 31 -1.3% -10.7% 77% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 3% -9.4%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses24 / 7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)31 / 36
History coverage240d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $89 $89 −$0 (-0%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? No 98¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 91¢ 90¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 90¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Banksy create a new mural or street artwork by December 31? Yes 85¢ 79¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 +6%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? Jun 18 $7 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 20+ times at The Villages on May 1? May 01 $2 −$2 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Mar 31 $127 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 26 $5 $0 +5%
Will Faustin-Archange Touadéra win the 2025 Central African Republic p Feb 26 $7 $0 +1%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? Feb 26 $7 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 26 $202 +$1 +0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 09 $2 $0 +4%
Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2025? Jan 09 $105 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 09 $6 $0 +8%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 09 $227 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Jan 09 $103 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 26 $90 $0 +0%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 26 $67 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 25 $2 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 25 $101 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 23 $318 $0 -0%
Will Sam Soverel win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Dec 17 $2 $0 +4%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Dec 17 $8 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Dec 01 $105 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Dec 01 $4 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on November 1 Dec 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 3? Nov 06 $5 $0 -0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 3? Nov 06 $2 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on October 30? Nov 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in October? Oct 22 $109 $0 -0%
Texans vs. Seahawks Oct 22 $2 $0 +14%
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on October 21? Oct 22 $3 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $89 1h
Will Banksy create a new mural or street artwork by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $3 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $3 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $5 48d
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 20+ times at The Villages on May 1? BUY No 88¢ $2 48d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $7 48d
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 79d
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $127 111d
Will Faustin-Archange Touadéra win the 2025 Central African Republic p BUY Yes 99¢ $7 159d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? BUY No 98¢ $7 159d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 159d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $101 159d
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $103 173d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 100¢ $90 173d
Maduro out in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $13 173d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $90 174d
Maduro out in 2025? SELL No 97¢ $54 174d
Maduro out in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $67 174d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 100¢ $101 174d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $101 174d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 98¢ $101 174d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $101 176d
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 176d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 96¢ $2 176d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 BUY No 95¢ $2 176d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 100¢ $102 176d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $102 180d
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL Yes 98¢ $101 180d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.01 · official $97.01 (match) · 86 history records