Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:11:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe936…ec04 other 118 markets active 7d ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$85 (-0%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate6%7W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$10
politics 35% −$10
sports 11% −$64
economics 4% −$1
tech 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 88 -3.4% -12.6% 1% 0% -9.8%
all 118 -4.6% -13.7% 6% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 3% -9.9%
10% -22.0% 2% -18.5%
15% -29.5% 1% -26.4%
20% -36.4% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×6.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses7 / 111
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)118 / 118
History coverage112d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 118 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $13 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $17 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $211 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $128 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $114 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $284 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $145 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $192 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $174 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $172 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $357 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $190 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $200 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $183 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $167 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $201 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $150 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $155 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $167 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $362 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $166 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $472 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $169 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $151 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $188 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 24 $345 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $145 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $379 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 22 $178 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $402 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $208 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $188 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $384 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $28 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $183 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $167 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $154 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $150 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $136 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $154 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $373 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $333 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $167 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $146 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $159 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $180 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $140 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $135 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $172 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 7d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 13d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 21d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 22d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 22d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 22d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $128 22d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $128 31d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $114 33d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $114 38d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $119 41d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $119 43d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $120 45d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $120 45d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $145 51d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $145 51d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $192 53d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $192 53d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $174 53d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $174 54d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $172 54d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $172 54d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $205 54d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $205 55d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $190 55d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $190 55d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $200 56d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $200 56d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $183 56d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $183 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 330 history records