Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:58:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe935…a916 sports 350 markets active 2h ago coverage 655d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-0%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%22W / 327L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$7
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% −$17
other 24% −$19
politics 23% −$9
economics 5% −$2
tech 3% −$2
world 3% −$1
crypto 3% −$5
culture 2% −$2
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 53 -0.9% -10.3% 9% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 70 -0.7% -10.2% 9% 0% -10.1%
all 349 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

655d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses22 / 327
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)349 / 350
History coverage655d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 349 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 97¢ 97¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 09 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $57 −$2 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $51 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $226 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $14 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $64 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $49 −$1 -2%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $103 −$2 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $97 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $63 $0 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $62 −$3 -5%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 04 $154 −$1 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $134 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 03 $41 −$2 -5%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $50 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $32 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $174 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $49 $0 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $119 $0 +0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $64 −$2 -3%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $206 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $201 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $230 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $187 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $117 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $185 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $149 −$1 -0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 29 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $107 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 27 $42 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $54 $0 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 27 $17 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $79 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? May 26 $60 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $102 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 25 $58 +$1 +2%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 24 $58 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 24 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 23 $56 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $54 1h
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $43 11d
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $44 11d
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 95¢ $48 11d
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 96¢ $49 12d
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $55 12d
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $57 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 12d
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $59 12d
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $60 12d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $51 12d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $51 12d
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $29 12d
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $29 13d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $40 13d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $40 13d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $57 13d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $57 13d
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $14 13d
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $4 14d
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $11 14d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $58 14d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $58 14d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $43 14d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $43 14d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $53 14d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $54 15d
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $48 15d
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $49 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.62 · official $53.62 (match) · 1241 history records