Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:45:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E9 0xe935…3991 crypto 1329 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$74 (-0%) realized −$115 · open +$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate64%884W / 494L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day48.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$880now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,433
7 days−$1,240
14 days−$1,248
30 days−$1,262
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$203
world 6% +$44
other 2% −$83
tech 1% −$5
sports 1% −$65
politics 1% +$4
weather 0% −$17
finance 0% +$9
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 215 -11.8% -20.2% 47% 35% -36.5%
≤30d 591 -2.8% -12.0% 57% 39% -21.1%
≤90d 1378 -5.7% -14.7% 64% 34% -17.4%
all 1378 -5.7% -14.7% 64% 34% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 34% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 25% -25.3%
15% -30.3% 20% -32.5%
20% -37.1% 15% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$880
Realized−$115
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses884 / 494
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions35
Markets (closed)1378 / 1329
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day48.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 1378 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 48¢ 100¢ $76 $158 +$82 (+107%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 91¢ 100¢ $112 $124 +$11 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $72 $73 +$1 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 96¢ 100¢ $62 $65 +$3 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 79¢ 99¢ $44 $55 +$11 (+25%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? No 71¢ 65¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-8%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+4%)
Chirayu Rana divorced? No 97¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+3%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+2%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 92¢ 94¢ $18 $19 +$0 (+3%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 92¢ 94¢ $18 $19 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 24¢ 16¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-31%)
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 45¢ 40¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-10%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? No 71¢ 64¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 28¢ 12¢ $14 $6 −$8 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 359 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $81,000 on May 6? Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 28 $28 −$28 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 28 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Jun 28 $3 +$2 +47%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $143 −$143 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 28 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 28 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 28 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 7? Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 28 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 28 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026? Jun 28 $29 −$29 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Jun 28 $13 −$12 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 28 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 28 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Jun 28 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 28 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 28 $11 −$14 -123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 28 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6PM ET Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 28 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 28 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $48 −$48 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $0 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $7 1h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 47¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $6 2h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 46¢ $63 2h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 50¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $879.55 · official $879.01 (match) · 3500 history records