Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:42:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe933…ead8 other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 319d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate39%15W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$4
politics 29% $0
world 27% −$1
crypto 6% $0
culture 5% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 10 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 0% -9.6%
all 38 -2.1% -11.4% 39% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 3% -9.9%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

319d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses15 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage319d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $38 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $34 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $37 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $38 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 27 $27 −$3 -12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $32 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $26 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $34 +$1 +4%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Jan 31 $5 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Jan 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 24 $6 $0 +1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Aug 12 $41 $0 -1%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 12 $26 $0 -0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 12 $27 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $115,000 on August 11? Aug 12 $9 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 11 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 11 $1 $0 +18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Aug 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 10 $111 $0 +0%
Will Trump mention "Sydney Sweeney" again by Friday? Aug 08 $63 $0 +1%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 08 $57 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 07 $12 $0 +2%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Aug 06 $5 $0 +2%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 06 $62 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2025? Aug 06 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $38 41m
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $38 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $22 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $3 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $8 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $34 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $37 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $37 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 40h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 40h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $36 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $36 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 34¢ $1 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $33 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 86¢ $33 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $18 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $18 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $33 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 94¢ $32 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 27¢ $23 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 31¢ $27 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $26 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $1 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $10 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $15 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $36 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $34 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $18 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $17 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.12 · official $0.00 (match) · 116 history records