Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:45:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe933…6c3f other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$159 (-21%) realized −$158 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -98% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -98% what you keep after slip
Net edge-98%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%2W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$58
7 days−$58
14 days−$58
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$260
crypto 6% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-98.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 96 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 103 -97.9% -98.1% 2% 0% -79.7%
all 103 -97.9% -98.1% 2% 0% -79.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -98.1% 0% -79.7%
10% -98.3% 0% -81.7%
15% -98.4% 0% -83.4%
20% -98.6% 0% -85.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -78% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -98% · $-wt -78% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -96% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$158
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses2 / 101
Open positions47
Markets (closed)103 / 8
History coverage50d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 47 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 22¢ $2 $26 +$24 (+1115%)
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 18¢ $2 $20 +$18 (+845%)
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $2 $11 +$9 (+413%)
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 9¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+394%)
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+319%)
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+86%)
Will Brazil score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+86%)
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+51%)
Will United States score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Will Colombia score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-54%)
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-59%)
Will Japan score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-68%)
Will Ecuador score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-68%)
Will Switzerland score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-70%)
Will Canada score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-73%)
Will Ivory Coast score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-81%)
Will Sweden score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-81%)
Will South Korea score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-84%)
Will Croatia score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-84%)
Will Morocco score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-84%)
Will Austria score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-84%)
Will Türkiye score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-89%)
Will Mexico score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-89%)
Will Ghana score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-92%)
Will Uruguay score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 99 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aldrich Potgieter win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Keith Mitchell win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Corey Conners win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brandt Snedeker win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ricky Castillo win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Christiaan Bezuidenhout win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Andrew Putnam win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Si Woo Kim win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Taylor Pendrith win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Marco Penge win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sam Stevens win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Daniel Berger win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Michael Thorbjornsen win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sahith Theegala win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Patrick Cantlay win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sungjae Im win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will J.T. Poston win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Matti Schmid win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nicolai Hojgaard win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ryo Hisatsune win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jake Knapp win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Austin Smotherman win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nick Taylor win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Maverick McNealy win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sepp Straka win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Harry Hall win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will John Parry win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will John Keefer win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lucas Glover win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bernd Wiesberger win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ben Griffin win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jordan Smith win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Patrick Rodgers win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rasmus Hojgaard win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jason Day win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Harris English win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Angel Ayora win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $73 1h
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $18 1h
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY No 83¢ $60 34d
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY No 84¢ $47 34d
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY No 84¢ $14 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 35d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 96¢ $57 35d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 75¢ $129 35d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $27 35d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 35d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 35d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 72¢ $9 35d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 72¢ $1 35d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 72¢ $8 35d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 72¢ $21 35d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 72¢ $4 35d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 77¢ $93 36d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $107 40d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 60¢ $101 40d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 41d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 91¢ $6 41d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 66¢ $213 49d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 66¢ $15 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.54 · official $98.55 (match) · 29 history records