Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:51:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E9 0xe933…a842 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized +$1 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$22
crypto 8% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-33.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -26.6% -33.6% 50% 50% -0.0%
≤30d 4 -26.6% -33.6% 50% 50% -0.0%
≤90d 4 -26.6% -33.6% 50% 50% -0.0%
all 4 -26.6% -33.6% 50% 50% -0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.6% 50% -0.0%
10% -40.0% 50% -9.6%
15% -45.8% 50% -18.3%
20% -51.1% 25% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$11 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 92¢ 96¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+4%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $38 +$19 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $12 −$11 -94%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$13 +43%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $12 −$11 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $29 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $30 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $38 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $12 39h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 47h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.62 · official $57.62 (match) · 8 history records