Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:23:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E9 0xe931…c750 sports 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$521 (+20%) realized +$513 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%7W / 12L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$358now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$300
sports 40% +$383
world 8% −$171
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +3.4% -6.5% 37% 37% +11.4%
≤30d 19 +3.4% -6.5% 37% 37% +11.4%
≤90d 19 +3.4% -6.5% 37% 37% +11.4%
all 19 +3.4% -6.5% 37% 37% +11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 37% +11.4%
10% -15.4% 32% +0.7%
15% -23.6% 26% -9.0%
20% -31.1% 26% -17.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$212 vs −$82 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$358
Realized+$513
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses7 / 12
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage6d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $300 $309 +$9 (+3%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Over 16¢ 16¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 −$47 -46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $153 +$347 +226%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $203 −$171 -84%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$314 +307%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$56 -55%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 +$13 +13%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$231 +226%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$214 +209%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $204 +$287 +141%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $300 +$80 +27%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 −$48 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $51 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 17¢ $55 5h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $308 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $102 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $102 9h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 32h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 32h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 7¢ $32 32h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $203 33h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $153 33h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $416 33h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 9¢ $46 41h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 41h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 41h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 41h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $30 41h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 41h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $33 41h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 41h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 41h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 41h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 41h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 41h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 43h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 13¢ $51 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $333 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 57¢ $237 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $357.65 · official $357.65 (match) · 43 history records