Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:33:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe930…8c7e crypto 408 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate53%214W / 192L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day20.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days+$53
14 days+$17
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$150
weather 35% +$85
other 1% −$1
politics 0% $0
world 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -2.9% -12.2% 38% 36% +1.0%
≤30d 200 -17.3% -25.2% 44% 35% -13.7%
≤90d 406 -12.9% -21.2% 53% 33% -14.2%
all 406 -12.9% -21.2% 53% 33% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.2% 33% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -28.7% 21% -22.4%
15% -35.6% 12% -29.9%
20% -41.9% 6% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses214 / 192
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)406 / 408
History coverage55d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day20.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 406 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 25? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 24? Yes 38¢ 41¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 20? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 24? Jun 24 $36 +$33 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 24? Jun 24 $7 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? Jun 24 $7 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $26 −$23 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 24? Jun 24 $32 −$31 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 23 $15 +$22 +144%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $16 −$7 -41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $17 −$15 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 23? Jun 23 $73 +$13 +18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $2 −$1 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 23? Jun 22 $34 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 22 $12 +$20 +158%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $21 +$25 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 23? Jun 22 $13 −$4 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $24 +$18 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $9 −$7 -78%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 20 $10 +$24 +248%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $8 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $6 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $1 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $3 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 19 $5 +$4 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? Jun 19 $3 −$1 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $9 +$14 +156%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +46%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Jun 18 $2 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +56%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $7 −$2 -33%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 18 $3 +$1 +32%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 18 $2 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 −$1 -42%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 17 $4 +$8 +200%
Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta? Jun 17 $1 $0 -23%
Will XRP reach $1.40 in June? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -65%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $1 $0 -23%
Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to 2 to 5 years in prison? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 38¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 25? BUY Yes 31¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 24? SELL Yes 97¢ $69 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 24? BUY Yes 74¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 24? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? SELL Yes 32¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 24? BUY Yes 51¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 24? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 24? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 24? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 24? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 24? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 24? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 10h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL Yes 92¢ $38 10h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 24? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 24? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? SELL No 20¢ $9 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 31¢ $5 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 31¢ $5 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 30¢ $5 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 26h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 36¢ $15 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 24? BUY Yes 5¢ $13 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 24? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 24? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 23? SELL Yes 50¢ $69 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 23? BUY Yes 65¢ $26 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.47 · official $24.47 (match) · 1300 history records