Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:15:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E9 0xe92d…bffc sports 223 markets active 1h ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,487 (-5%) realized −$2,537 · open +$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate52%114W / 107L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$239per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$302now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$99
14 days+$99
30 days+$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$2,207
crypto 29% +$3,315
other 19% −$2,596
world 12% −$620
politics 4% −$994
weather 2% +$236
finance 1% +$109
economics 0% +$245
tech 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +41.6% +28.1% 100% 100% +27.0%
≤30d 4 +41.6% +28.1% 100% 100% +27.0%
≤90d 40 -18.1% -25.9% 45% 40% -19.5%
all 221 -15.8% -23.8% 52% 43% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 43% -13.9%
10% -31.1% 33% -22.1%
15% -37.8% 26% -29.7%
20% -43.9% 19% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$142 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$302
Realized−$2,537
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses114 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)221 / 223
History coverage200d
Avg bet$239
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 221 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 73¢ 92¢ $198 $250 +$51 (+26%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 34¢ 34¢ $54 $52 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $62 +$19 +31%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $77 +$47 +61%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $36 +$21 +57%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $70 +$12 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? May 01 $50 +$54 +108%
ChatGPT Outage by May 1? Apr 27 $35 +$9 +27%
Will Trump say "Jerome Too Late" this week? (April 27 - May 3) Apr 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Trump say "Go ahead" 3+ times during healthcare event? Apr 23 $34 −$17 -48%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $18 −$7 -39%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Apr 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Apr 23 $2 −$2 -76%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Apr 23 $8 +$4 +51%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 23 $65 +$12 +19%
Will GPT-5.5 not be released by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $11 +$11 +103%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? Apr 22 $11 $0 +2%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs GamerLegion (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 20 $50 +$24 +48%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 20 $40 −$9 -22%
Rainbow Six Siege: KINOTROPE gaming vs CAG Osaka - Game 1 Winner Apr 20 $60 +$20 +34%
Will Trump say "Two week" or "two-week" this week? (April 19) Apr 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 7 to April Apr 13 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 6, 2026 Apr 09 $38 +$41 +107%
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 3, 2026 Apr 09 $35 −$33 -95%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins Apr 09 $96 −$96 -100%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 08 $67 +$51 +75%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 3 to April Apr 07 $140 −$127 -91%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 31 to April Apr 07 $200 +$90 +45%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 56 million views on day 2 Apr 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 31 to Apr Apr 07 $7 −$7 -94%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 50 million views on day 2 Apr 06 $200 −$98 -49%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 44 and 47 million views on day 2 Apr 06 $61 −$56 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on March 30? Apr 06 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on March 30? Apr 06 $22 +$26 +116%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 31 $125 +$13 +10%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Mar 30 $200 −$35 -18%
Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by March 31? Mar 30 $153 +$142 +92%
Will the number of US flights delayed on March 26 be between 3,500 and Mar 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the number of US flights delayed on March 26 be between 3,000 and Mar 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 27 $391 −$18 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will 10-14 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? Mar 23 $22 −$22 -98%
Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? Mar 23 $31 −$30 -97%
Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10 Mar 21 $142 −$141 -99%
Will Israel strike 2 countries in March 2026? Mar 21 $411 −$411 -100%
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during March press conference? Mar 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on March 17? Mar 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 5? Mar 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 17? Mar 18 $50 +$31 +61%
Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 2, 2026? Mar 17 $400 −$400 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 16? Mar 17 $68 +$50 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 34¢ $55 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 90¢ $37 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 73¢ $58 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 73¢ $173 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 39¢ $124 4d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 76¢ $62 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $36 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $70 8d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $77 8d
ChatGPT Outage by May 1? SELL No 49¢ $44 57d
Will Trump say "Jerome Too Late" this week? (April 27 - May 3) BUY No 46¢ $15 58d
Will Trump say "Go ahead" 3+ times during healthcare event? SELL No 38¢ $18 61d
Will Trump say "Go ahead" 3+ times during healthcare event? BUY No 73¢ $34 61d
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 62d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $16 62d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week SELL Yes 0¢ $0 62d
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world SELL Yes 64¢ $12 62d
Suns vs. Thunder SELL Suns 7¢ $18 62d
Suns vs. Thunder BUY Suns 8¢ $20 62d
Suns vs. Thunder SELL Suns 12¢ $30 62d
Suns vs. Thunder BUY Suns 8¢ $20 62d
Suns vs. Thunder SELL Suns 11¢ $30 62d
Suns vs. Thunder BUY Suns 9¢ $25 62d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? BUY No 47¢ $50 62d
ChatGPT Outage by May 1? BUY No 35¢ $17 62d
ChatGPT Outage by May 1? BUY No 40¢ $18 62d
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $11 62d
Will GPT-5.5 not be released by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $22 62d
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $11 62d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week BUY Yes 0¢ $2 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $302.15 · official $299.42 (match) · 534 history records