Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:45:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe92c…d27e other 733 markets active 0h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$22,579 (-8%) realized −$22,579 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate69%508W / 224L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$375per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$800now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,510
7 days−$1,184
14 days−$2,115
30 days−$3,531
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$19,005
sports 38% −$3,211
crypto 2% −$657
world 0% +$137
culture 0% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -3.7% -12.9% 78% 54% -15.6%
≤30d 107 -5.2% -14.2% 77% 55% -20.6%
≤90d 139 -2.5% -11.8% 78% 58% -19.1%
all 732 -5.2% -14.2% 69% 42% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 42% -17.1%
10% -22.4% 22% -25.0%
15% -29.9% 14% -32.2%
20% -36.8% 9% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$273 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$800
Realized−$22,579
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses508 / 224
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions1
Markets (closed)732 / 733
History coverage236d
Avg bet$375
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 732 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? No 98¢ 98¢ $800 $800 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,003 +$120 +12%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $101 −$45 -44%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $50 +$8 +16%
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) Jun 22 $100 +$7 +7%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,003 +$108 +11%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $1,002 −$1,002 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,003 +$108 +11%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1,004 +$146 +14%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,001 +$38 +4%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $100 +$5 +5%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1,004 −$1,000 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $100 +$17 +17%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 20 $601 +$34 +6%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $100 +$17 +17%
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) Jun 20 $100 +$10 +10%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $100 −$74 -74%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $201 +$54 +27%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $1,003 +$99 +10%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,003 +$120 +12%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 20 $501 +$42 +8%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Canada (-4.5) Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $502 +$79 +16%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $100 +$19 +18%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $201 −$124 -62%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $200 +$12 +6%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 +$15 +31%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 18 $50 +$7 +13%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $100 +$10 +10%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 +$31 +31%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $100 +$11 +11%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $77 +$15 +20%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $100 +$7 +7%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$18 +18%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$32 +32%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $1,003 +$99 +10%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$27 +27%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$7 +7%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $801 6m
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 40¢ $56 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $101 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $1,003 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 18h
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 93¢ $100 18h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $100 19h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $1,003 22h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $1,002 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $1,003 25h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 86¢ $100 27h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 87¢ $1,004 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $1,001 28h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $100 44h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $100 44h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,004 44h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 85¢ $100 47h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 85¢ $100 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 95¢ $501 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 92¢ $100 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) SELL Sweden 100¢ $110 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 24¢ $26 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) BUY Sweden 91¢ $100 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 89¢ $100 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Sweden 90¢ $100 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 89¢ $100 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $1,003 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $100 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $101 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,003 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $799.59 · official $799.59 (match) · 1456 history records