Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:54:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E9 0xe92b…fa4d sports 230 markets active 2h ago coverage 500d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$97 (-1%) realized −$140 · open +$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%111W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$64
7 days+$125
14 days+$125
30 days+$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$232
weather 39% +$402
crypto 12% +$12
other 5% −$49
world 2% −$100
politics 1% −$100
tech 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +14.3% +3.4% 57% 57% +3.7%
≤30d 44 +14.3% +3.4% 57% 57% +3.7%
≤90d 44 +14.3% +3.4% 57% 57% +3.7%
all 225 +1.3% -8.4% 49% 46% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 46% -10.0%
10% -17.1% 40% -18.6%
15% -25.1% 35% -26.5%
20% -32.5% 27% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$54 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

500d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized−$140
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses111 / 114
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions5
Markets (closed)225 / 230
History coverage500d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 225 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Over 42¢ 100¢ $30 $71 +$41 (+138%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) New Zealand 57¢ 57¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Under 59¢ 62¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+6%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 57¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $40 −$40 -99%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 +$11 +109%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$19 +93%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $49 −$36 -74%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $25 +$24 +93%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $35 +$19 +55%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $30 +$31 +101%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $25 −$25 -99%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$10 +50%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $20 +$9 +46%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $31 +$45 +148%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $31 +$41 +134%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$3 +55%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $30 +$30 +97%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $15 +$14 +93%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $25 +$19 +73%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $25 +$37 +146%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 +$15 +73%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 +$9 +90%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $35 −$35 -99%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$11 +55%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 +$14 +134%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$15 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 20 $8 +$2 +29%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $8 +$42 +550%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $26 −$26 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$19 +62%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) Oct 24 $13 −$7 -50%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner Oct 24 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Secret Whales - Game 2 Winner Oct 24 $14 +$6 +39%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) Oct 24 $35 +$5 +15%
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 23 $28 −$28 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Secret Whales - Game 1 Winner Oct 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $25 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $19 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 41¢ $0 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $31 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $25 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 41¢ $38 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $20 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $20 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 57¢ $41 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $25 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 40h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 59¢ $10 40h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 2¢ $1 40h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 6¢ $1 40h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 1¢ $1 40h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $20 40h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 51¢ $30 40h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 40h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 40h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 40h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 36¢ $37 41h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 31¢ $0 41h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 30¢ $11 41h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 41h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 41h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $25 2d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 49¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.13 · official $187.29 (match) · 842 history records