Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:43:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe92a…db50 world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 295d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%10W / 25L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$2
politics 17% +$2
other 16% $0
culture 14% $0
sports 7% $0
crypto 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 13 +0.1% -9.4% 38% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 13 +0.1% -9.4% 38% 0% -9.1%
all 35 -1.0% -10.4% 29% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -9.2%
10% -19.0% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.78 per $1 lost it wins $2.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

295d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses10 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage295d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $49 +$2 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $63 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $35 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $4 $0 -2%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 14 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Sharon Horgan win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Dram Sep 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 13 $4 $0 -7%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 12 $36 $0 +0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 12 $37 $0 +0%
Will Chow Hang‑tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 11 $37 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 11 $37 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 10 $37 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? Sep 10 $37 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 09 $1 $0 -32%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 09 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 09 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electio Sep 09 $35 +$3 +8%
Will Elon tweet 400 or more times August 29–September 5? Sep 06 $34 +$1 +3%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Sep 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will WIN win the most seats in the 2025 Guyana National Assembly elect Sep 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $5 $0 -2%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $33 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $23 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $10 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $33 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 39h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 41h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $1 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $33 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $34 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $34 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $32 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $4 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $8 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $12 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $19 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $13 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $4 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $28 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $32 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 46¢ $17 17d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $17 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $32 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $32 17d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $22 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $32 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $26 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $6 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $31 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.96 · official $32.96 (match) · 124 history records