Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:25:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe929…299f crypto 982 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,072 (-16%) realized −$221 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate25%248W / 731L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$18
14 days−$0
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$187
sports 15% +$32
world 8% −$15
weather 2% −$85
other 0% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +39.7% +26.4% 24% 24% +19.8%
≤30d 95 -24.3% -31.5% 15% 15% -40.9%
≤90d 444 -29.5% -36.2% 18% 16% -22.0%
all 979 -20.0% -27.6% 25% 22% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 22% -11.4%
10% -34.6% 21% -19.9%
15% -40.9% 18% -27.6%
20% -46.7% 16% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$6 · ×2.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$221
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses248 / 731
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)979 / 982
History coverage117d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 979 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 14? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-68%)
Will Solana dip to $65 on June 14? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 14? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +187%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$10 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana reach $70 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$19 +1775%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$9 +425%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 12? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 12? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 10? Jun 11 $10 +$9 +82%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 9? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 9? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 10? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 6? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Solana reach $65 on June 6? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 3? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on June 1? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 1? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on May 30? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 30? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on May 30? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 26 $6 −$1 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 7h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 7h
Will Solana dip to $65 on June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 7h
Will Solana reach $70 on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 11h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 29h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 34¢ $8 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.59 · official $0.59 (match) · 3500 history records