Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:13:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

E9 0xe922…3adf other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$49 (-19%) realized −$46 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip

Net edge-4%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate83%5W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$29per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 89d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-3.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	2	+66.4%	+50.6%	100%	100%	+36.8%
≤90d	6	+6.4%	-3.8%	83%	33%	-31.8%
all	6	+6.4%	-3.8%	83%	33%	-31.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-3.8%	33%	-31.8%
10%	-13.0%	33%	-38.3%
15%	-21.4%	33%	-44.3%
20%	-29.1%	17%	-49.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 61% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -25% too few recent

Fragile wins

60% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +6% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$10 vs −$98 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.5 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage

Net worth$54

Realized−$46

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)83%

Wins / losses5 / 1

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions3

Markets (closed)6 / 9

History coverage89d

Avg bet$29

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay?	Yes	15¢	14¢	$35	$34	−$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$20	$18	−$2 (-8%)
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	Yes	85¢	86¢	$2	$2	+$0 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves	Jun 08	$75	+$30	+40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	May 28	$21	+$19	+93%
New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5	Apr 17	$100	−$98	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Apr 17	$1	$0	+1%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	Apr 17	$2	$0	+2%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $90-$95 in March?	Apr 17	$2	$0	+3%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	6¢	$21	1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	15¢	$36	1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves	BUY Atlanta Braves	71¢	$75	12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$21	22d
New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5	BUY Under	49¢	$100	63d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	BUY Yes	98¢	$2	89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$1	89d
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	BUY Yes	85¢	$2	89d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $90-$95 in March?	BUY No	97¢	$2	89d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.30 · official $54.30 (match) · 14 history records