Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:41:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe91d…95ff other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate54%19W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$1
other 22% $0
sports 7% $0
crypto 6% +$1
politics 5% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 38% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 38% 0% -9.3%
all 35 -2.9% -12.2% 54% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 0% -9.4%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.1%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses19 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage464d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $42 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $75 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $40 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $70 $0 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $36 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $36 $0 -1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 22 $1 $0 -4%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $12 $0 -4%
Will 'The Colors Within' win Crunchyroll's Film of the Year Award for May 21 $13 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 19 $13 $0 +1%
Will Anthony Edwards Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? May 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Pacers vs. Nuggets be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 13 $13 $0 +1%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 09 $12 $0 -2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? May 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Karoline Leavitt be out as White House Press Secretary in Trump's May 06 $11 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 26 $1 $0 +2%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? Apr 16 $13 $0 +0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 06 $14 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Mar 28 $13 +$1 +4%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $7 $0 -6%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 19 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 1h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $40 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $32 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $36 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $40 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $39 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $36 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $36 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $36 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $4 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $32 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $35 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $39 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $39 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $35 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $35 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 15d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $34 15d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $2 15d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $36 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $36 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.61 · official $36.61 (match) · 94 history records